Hillary's support comes from four distinct groups:
- Women over 30
- Anyone over 50 (each year older increases the ardor for Hillary based on the hatred of a president being younger)
- Low information voters who go on name recognition alone (and who vaguely remember that Clinton=Good President)
- Racists (who also presume that they're actually voting for a third term of Bill)
This leaves us with group 1, the women. Many women - and I've talked to a bunch - are voting for her out of the same, laudable, blind-loyalty that I expect yellow dog Democrats to have. The same loyalty that drives people to vote for whomever the Jew on the ticket is, even when the guy's a scumbag (exhibit a: Spitzer). These crazy women will be hopping mad if Hillary is 'forced' to concede the election. Because, as I've heard and read many times, it's just like the male phallus-oppressors to demand women to take second place to a man.
Setting aside the fact that Hillary has as much to do with honest feminism as Betty Crocker, when you have someone like Chris Dodd asking her to drop out - a guy who ran against her, who has more experience in public office than her, yet who already dropped out - then it's not about man/woman. But the Valkyries won't see that logic. Just as bullet-headed W supporters think that he'll be vindicated by history (much as James Buchanan and Warren Harding have), so type-1 Hillary supporters consider every slight to be one of gender.
And, yes, I do claim that there are those who are against Obama because they are racists. My claim is not the same thing as the Hillary claim. Why? Because I'm applying it to only a segment of his opposition, not the totality. And because I am not an idiot.
Anyway, the Valkyries can be mollified if Obama chooses a viable female VP. No mouth-breathing non-entities from useless states (paging Representative Ferraro). Obama would need a competent purple/red state Senator/Governor; preferably one who can run in '16. And since women live way longer than men, I think he can skew older than I suspect he could with male candidates.
OK, enough background. Now to the original post, back from Jan 9:
The Analysis:
For my list of current and former office holders, I'm using this Rutgers site, and any relevant Wiki sites (there's nothing comprehensive... maybe I'll make it). Also, I went through a list of women a few weeks ago, which I will reproduce as well. Following is their name, state, year first elected into office, and age.
Governors
- Christine Gregoire (Washington, 2004, 61)
- Kathleen Sebelius (Kansas, 2002, 60)
- Janet Napolitano (Arizona, 2002, 51)
- Ruth Ann Minner (Delaware, 2001, 73)
- Jennifer Granholm (Michigan, 2002, 49)
- Kathleen Blanco (Lousiana, 2004-2007, 66)
- Jeanne Shaheen (New Hamp, 1997-2003, 61)
- Barbara Boxer of California
- Dianne Feinstein (California)
- Amy Klobuchar Minnesota
- Blanche Lincoln (Arkansas 1998, 48)
- Claire McCaskill Missouri
- Barbara Mikulski Maryland
- Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House
- Sebelius - in House from 86-94, Chair of Democratic Governors Association. Moderate but pro-choice, anti-death penalty.
- Napolitano - named one of the 5 best governors; US Atty for AZ under Clinton, former chair of Gov. Assoc.
- Gregoire - Atty Gen. of Wash from 1993-2005
- Blanco - In disgrace after Katrina mismanagement.
- Granholm - not a U.S. citizen (she's Canadaian)
- Minner - too old (73)
- Shaheen - pal of Hillary, will run for Senator of NH (which is more important for the party)
I have a soft-spot for Blanche Lincoln. She's young, so she can run in '16, she Southern, and she has the great last name. If Obama really wants to channel the Abraham Lincoln vibe, what better way than to actually have one on the ticket. Yeah, Blanche has (after 1/9/08) endorsed Hillary, but whoop-de-doo. However, to get the older group, I think Napolitano or Sebelius. Napolitano is term limited so she'd be a good shot - and she can maybe embarrass the GOP by taking McCain's home state into the Democrats. Sebelius is also term limited and has a more strategic region/state (even if the Democrats can't win KS, we can maybe get a lot of the Midwest with two of them on the ticket).
Because of the regionalism - and her experience in the House as well as governor - I think Sebelius is the best pick for Obama.
Finished 4/7/08 11:48 PM, began January 9th, 2008. Honest.
No comments:
Post a Comment