New Hampshire Predictions

It's late, I know, so this will be brief.

It's likely that Obama will maintain and even increase his lead over Clinton because Edwards is far less of a spoiler in NH. If she's within 5, she'll claim "victory"; between 5-10, then a "rebound" [note that I think its ludicrous to say either, but that's politics]; under 10 is going to be geometrically decisive for Obama and we'll get to see an increased Hillary freakout. Which would be nice.

The question on the GOP side is whether there are enough indipendents who don't want to vote for Obama left to vote for McCain. There's the huge turnout today, which helps those who're popular, so that may lift McCain.

Richardson said he's staying in "the final four" until Nevada, so he won't drop out. And if Rommney gets under #2 then he's major toast.