Single Votes Count

Even if 2000 didn't send that lesson, here's a good rundown to remind us, from 538.

538 Map of the Week #3

538 Map of the Week

Summary Changes:
Week 3: Obama 337, McCain 201
Week 2: Obama 273, McCain 265
Week 1: Obama 279, McCain 259




What a major shift! What happened? Well, according to 538's Nate Silver: Florida, Virginia, Missouri and even Indiana are now light light blue.

538 Map of the Week

As started here, this is the 538 Electoral Projection Map of the Week ending on 6/13.

Summary Changes:
Last week: Obama 273, McCain 265
This week: Obama 279, McCain 259 (Michigan & Nevada moved from almost red to toss-up white)

538 Map of the Week

538.com began a few months ago and it has taken the political world by storm. The site's author, Nate Silver, is a professional sports statistician who decided to apply his (lucrative, sought after) techniques to politics. See this story in the NYPost for more info.

I can't argue with numbers, but I find that he emphasizes certain things too much, the site is too confusing, and the clearly practical part - the tracking of state-by-state polls - seems to not reflect the feeling on the ground.

As of this week, June 6, he puts Obama barely winning in November. I can accept that because the polls were taken before Obama clinched the nomination and, hey, it's FIVE FULL MONTHS before the election occurs. Most people don't pay attention to the vote until after labor day, and while the primary was fun and all, it was also weird and confusing.

That said, I will try to post the map of the current electoral projection from week to week, so there's a running visual of the progression of the race. Standard deal, red=GOP, blue=Dem, stronger the color, the stronger the support.



P.S. He has not yet including anything from third-parties. Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, may have a strong showing in a number of Southern states that could complicate things. For example, NC and GA.

The Map & Predictions

From Yglesias about the new sensation, 538. He's right, because this has been my creeping criticism as well:

It's really too bad that the folks behind Five Thirty Eight.com have gone and created such a compelling website based around state-by-state general election polling. It's all really well done and, as such, I can't really bring myself to look away. But this stuff is all really and truly meaningless. Six months ago, no polling showed Barack Obama winning the Democratic race, and no polling showed John McCain winning the Republican race and the general election is about six months away.

Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton

FiveThirtyEight.com has a good post (defined as 'agreeing with The Styx') called "Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton" about why Hillary can't conceivably run in 2012. My biggest counterargument is that since she has shown absolutely no shame or good judgment this year, why would she learn it in 4 years? Ah well. But this is the key paragraph:

3. She has burned too many bridges within the party leadership.

If Clinton's goal is to become the new Ted Kennedy, that is harder to accomplish when Ted Kennedy is still alive and kicking, and happens to hate your guts. Calling Bill Richardson 'Judas', or saying that that John Kerry is 'dead to us': these are not the sort of actions that a political franchise takes when it is concerned about its long-term future. Clinton's comments to USA Today, which triggered the Kennedy outburst, may ultimately be remembered as the moment that her campaign, having committed the crime, jumped into the White Ford Bronco and tried to make the best of it. If superdelegates are still around in 2012, she is not likely to have the head start with them that she did in this cycle.

Again, if she didn't understand that now, why would she get that in the future?

Backpost finished 2009-12-06.