Why I Want the Broncos to Win

There's a thread over at SteelersDepot about how to survive a Superbowl without the Steelers in it.  They asked the question about whether people were Steelers fans or football fans, the nafka mina is whether you could watch football when the Steelers fate is sealed. Since I'm an expatriate Pittsburgher, I have had to live for years without my favorite NFL team to root for.  So for me this is an easier prospect than for the Western PA locals.

I am a sports fan, especially in the past few years when I've soured on Hollywood and TV, and my answer is easy (see below for what that means).  But even with the Steelers out, I can still root for them, in a roundabout way.  Because the Steelers are an elite team, we fans can take a very long view, at least in the Superbowl era.

We root for overall Superbowl record.  See what I wrote last year before the nightmare of SB47 for more on this, but basically I root for the Steelers to have the most SB appearances, SB wins, and if possible the best SB record.  For example, last year's Superbowl was a nightmare because I needed to root for the Ravens (ugh) so the 49ers could lose and ruin their 5-0 record.  If SF won, then they'd have as many rings as Pittsburgh but no losses.  Thank goodness they lost (you should have heard me at the end of the game, after the 'mysterious' blackout).

So for this year, I again take a long view, and it may be even longer than most. I'm rooting, seriously, for the Broncos.   Here are the reasons, with the biggest at the end:

1. Both teams are artificially inflated because they have the two most egregious home-field advantages.  The Seahawks' 12th-man bull-spliff is infuriating - it's basically cheating.  But that also makes them likely to be worse when they're on a neutral field.  The inflated stats/wins skew the data, and that kinda stuff fools people (see my rants about the 2000 election and Spygate), but I expect to see it on display Sunday.  Same holds for Denver.  They got to 3 Superbowls in the 80s on Elway's arm, Browns being the Browns, and the home-field advantage which inflated their numbers.  Both teams this year are actually talented, so I expect a good battle, but I don't like either team because of the home-field cheat.
2. Richard Sherman's insane rant after the NFCCG doesn't affect my rooting interest.  He was classless and remains so, but a lot of athletes act that way.  Although, I don't ever remember an unhinged rant like his.  Muhammad Ali was controlled, Sherman was actual crazy.  If you recall, Sherman was busted for taking Adderall, and while it may be that he was abusing it to get the crank boost (like many highschoolers), it could also be that he has ADHD.  I know people with ADD and Sherman's rant falls into the category of someone with that condition.  The reason people were repulsed is because unmedicated abnormal psychology is disturbing.  But it's a real condition and he needs meds.
3. The reaction to Sherman went racist very quickly, another scary sign of what America remains even years after the Civil Rights Act.  Hence why I want to emphasize that while Sherman was classless and unhinged, my tack against the 'hawks is not racially based.  If it were the 'hawks against the Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Raiders, Browns (ha), or Texans, I'd be rooting for them.

The biggest reason I'm rooting for Denver, is because I need Manning to win for the Steelers sake.  Follow me here: Manning winning will add more wood to the fire of Spygate. Brady is given more credit than Manning because of their head-to-head match-ups, which could/probably have been Manning wins. If Manning wins Sunday, on a new team against a #1 defense and in the cold, then it'll help him - sure - but will finally convince hold-outs that Brady was propped by cheating.

And then, oh I hope, we can convince people that the Steelers should have been in the 2001 and 2004 Superbowls as well.

Look at how long they make Jerome Bettis wait to get into the Hall.  The Patriots cheated to win the AFC championships in 2001 and 2004.  If the Steelers went to Superbowl 36 and 39 as well as 40 with Bettis, he'd be in on the first ballot. We'd have maybe one more ring (over the Eagles, which would have been Pennsylvania sweet, but the Rams were too tough IMO) and our team would have been the legitimate dynasty, helping get Faneca, Cowher and Hines into the Hall as well.

So, in my mind, Manning winning will help fuel the case for Steelers greatness as well.

APPENDICES
1. My biggest proofs for Patriot cheating - aside from their actually getting caught and Goodell burning the evidence because of the horrible damage it would cause the whole sport, cf. Tour de France - is that the Patriots had abnormally high turnovers.  I watched Superbowl 39 recently and the announcers were saying how amazing the Patriots D was at being able to know when a screen pass was coming.  The Pats won all three Superbowls by a field-goal, which shows their lack of non-cheating talent.

2.  For "the Browns being the Browns" see this great video:

Mark of a Modern Fan

How I can prove my bona-fides as a Steeler fan: I'm extremely excited about the hiring of an Offensive Line coach.

Steelers Week 7 - Reflections

Some thoughts as the Steelers winning "streak" continues:

1. Steeler football is not like watching other teams (e.g. the Colts/Broncos last night).  The 2 styles are almost Lombardi vs. Coryell - i.e. win with (a) running & defense, or (b) high scoring, screw the defense.  I mean, the Steelers over the past few years have just grounded out games, and it makes me tense to watch, and the margin of error feels like almost nil.
2. The offense is doing pretty well. Amazing what happens when you get your top players back, eh? (see my previous entries for this prediction).  Which means we'll get even better when our #2 TE comes back (and possibly even more with the rookie Wheaton, but I think our TE situation needs more rapid improvement).  Tight Ends are a crucial part of the modern NFL offense (which could explain why we got another one recently; sadly he broke before he could play).
3. We're getting better every week.  Which should scare everybody.  
4. See this page for detailed examples of the improved O-line and running game.
5. Our getting better shows that the coaching is getting better.  I stand by my earlier assessment that the coaches of previous years were not that good, especially on o-line. The best proof for a better O-line coach is seen by Guy Whimper (aka, for real, "Abdullah the Butcher"), who was discarded from other teams, and was not good in training camp (so sez the beat reporters, who should know) but had a very credible game on Sunday against a monster defensive line.
6. From the above link: "Abdullah and Kelvin Beachum, considered mere depth back in training camp, combined Sunday to hold the dangerous pass- rushing tandem of Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to 1.5 sacks in the Steelers' 19-16 win..."
7. Because I can see very clearly that the coaches know what they're doing, and that the in-season moves have actually been effective, I will restore my trust in the front office.  They do seem to know what they're doing, at least so far.
8. Why was it bad before and good now?  Well, I think Tomlin has limited wiggle room because, and this is pure speculation, the Rooney's seem to have close scrutiny and may make certain decisions by fiat; especially as it comes to coaches.  They seem to be the ones who fired Arians (which I was happy to see, and as I said before, Haley was working out even last year before Ben got hurt). 
9. The defense is also slowly getting better.  If it works out like last year, then LeBeau could get them in such shape that we'll have a crackerjack shutdown defense by the last quarter of the season.
10. I see people talking about the Steelers still in the Wild Card race.  I think more of winning the division, but I guess the others' want WC because that makes us in control of our destiny while the division needs to have the Bengals stumble.  Note, that the Bengals have always stumbled, but I see their mentality's advantage.
11. About the WC race, the standing right now are Patriots win the E, Bengals N, Colts S, and the freakin' Chiefs the West.  The WC would be Denver & the freakin' Jets.  Because of KC & Denver, there's only 1 real WC spot left, so the Steelers will need to battle it out with all the mediocre AFC teams, which for now are numerous.
    
12. Anyway, while it still is possible to make the playoffs, my reason to look at that is in order to see how the team/games are still relevant.  That's key.
13. Emmanuel Sanders should be our PR/KR.  Duuuude.
    

Further personal note:
Except for football, I'm a NY team fan, but Pittsburgh is my #2 for the rest (I was born in Pittsburgh but lived in the NY area for most of my life).  For historians, it goes like this:

• FOOTBALL: 
• #1 Steelers (1972-present)
• #2 Jets (1980-1983), and I still have occasional sympathy
• BASEBALL:
• #1 Mets  (by a big margin)
• #2 Pirates (because of history, and what can you do?)
• after this, it's pretty much rooting against whomever I hate.
• BASKETBALL
• #1 Knicks, but I am feeling some growing sympathy to jump ship to Brooklyn, (displaced) land of my fathers.
• #2 I really don't care very much about basketball, to be honest
• HOCKEY
• #1 Rangers
• #2 Penguins
• If it's possible to care less about basketball, that's how little I care about hockey

OK now thats done.  I set that up for this point: So, I follow the Pittsburgh teams via Pitt radio and Steelers beat writers, and I noted how the Penguins were one of the best and they died in the playoffs   Pirates did the same. It's possible now to think that the Steelers can possibly repeat 2011 - make it and lose in 1 game.  There's double precedent!

Steelers, Week 6 comments

Finally, some breath for a drowning team!  We win 16-9 over the Jets and save ourselves from being bagel'd.  

Here's Labriola on Steelers' win over Jets:

There was a dropped touchdown pass. A dropped interception. Seven penalties. The rushing total again was under 100 yards, and the three tailbacks averaged a meager 2.6 yards per carry. The offense was inefficient in the red zone (0-for-2), the defense allowed the Jets to drive 51 yards in 43 seconds at the end of the first half to answer a Steelers field goal with one of their own, and special teams didn’t have a single decent return and stuck the offense at its own 21-yard line once with an illegal block penalty.

I can't contradict his numbers, but I think this was a good win. What's the difference between this and a bad win?  Well (1) we were in the lead for almost all the game, (2) we never relinquished the lead, (3) we didn't turn the ball over. Those 3 alone make any win a good win.

Look, I know its the Jets, and they are a "bad team." Except, so are the Chiefs and the Titans and the Browns... and this year those teams are good. So far.  By December we'll know who's bad and who's not. But for now, the Jets were 3-2 heading in the game and they had the #2 defense in the NFL.  That's serious.

Watching the game, it felt like watching 2011 & 2012 - both years we had talent and luck to reach either 12-4 or 8-8 (and, duh, yeah that's what happened, but I think it sets the facts). We've got the talent, I think, to still win the division.  Seriously.  For most NFL fans who don't listen/read what I do, that sounds like pie in the sky, but I can tell you, we are actually a good team and our problems are normal.

Bottom line, is that as opposed to Baseball, Basketball and Hockey - who have so many games it feels like the volume knob is stuck on 11 - a single game matters in Football.  I've been watching baseball as much as I can since August and it's stunning how a team can be good one day and bad the next.  This is acceptable.  So when that happens in football, it's grevious, but happens it does, to even great teams.    
 Anyway, here are some other random reactions: 

1. I wonder if they did the gadget play because Cowher was in the booth?
2. Nantz mentioned that the Steelers are the least penalized team in the league. And considering some of the penalties were ridiculous (see tripping, week 1) that this is a good sign. 
3. Since we're not really doing the outside running game, or I think the zone blocking scheme, and since Levi Brown seems to be out even before he was in, maybe that means... Max Starks will be back!
4. A certain amount of the defensive success was probably because of the rookie QB. 
5. We need 2 things now: (a) win all remaining division games, (b) hope Bengals lose more. 
6. We have enough rookies to keep it going so we can get the big needs for next year (1) LT, (2) CB, (3) TE. 
7. We really got lucky given the first 2 injuries. that's a hypothetical to recognize, in a pure snakebit scenario, we'd have had another injury in game and wouldn't have had any backup linemen.
8. The Big Ben to AB tandem was rockin' the whole game. 
9. This next game is a must win.  Home game; Divisional game. If they lose, then I don't think we have anything but a miraculous chance.  Both because of the odds, and because it'll show that we're not actually any good (again, barring injuries).  If we win then the Ravens have our # of losses, and we'll be 1-1 in the division... oh it could happen!  
10. I've learned to covet a tablet given the way I watch the games now: (1) I mute the TV and listen to the audio from the Steelers broadcasters, (2) I read the twitter comments from the Steelers reporters.

 I feel that if we play as good as we did in NJ, we have a chance to win Sunday.

Steelers Notes, Bye Week, Pre-Jets

The moment of truth is today at 1pm, Steelers vs. Jets in my new home state of Jersey.   If we lose today, then the roof has caved in.  Maybe.  Ya see, the reason why I haven't utterly given up hope is because I think we're a decent team that has been snakebitten (see previous entries). Compare to last year's Chiefs & Browns, that we are better than our record, but because of the way the game is played, the breaks don't go our way. 

The basic problems, to recap, have been (a) starting the year with injuries, (b) starting the year with green-horn rookies, especially on Defense, which is legendary for not being amenable to rookies.

Each week, there's a different reason why we've lost, but it comes down to those 2 things, the offense's injuries and the defenses soft middle.  And every week, we seem to be giving evidence that we will break out of those problems.

So today is the proof of the pudding; barring any injuries, or any obvious fluke (like bad calls, which we've gotten BTW) if we lose today then it means that we actually aren't good enough to break 500.

If we lose today and I still see signs that we've been improving, or we've suffered the snake-bites like the now undefeated Chiefs back in 2012, then I may maintain some optimism.  

But I do believe we will lose today because despite having a HoF QB, and HoF safety, and many pro-bowlers, our 2 weakest areas are lethal: left tackle, inside linebacker.

Steelers, Week 4, Quick Thoughts

Didn't get to watch it yet (may never), only heard the game on radio. But, in one word, yeeeesh. If I needed any proof for the necessity of a workable Left Tackle, it's these first 4 games. But then again, I didn't expect our defense, the Dick LeBeau defense, the "#1" defense, one with HOF shoo-in Troy Polomalu, to be so freakin' bad.

Like any normal Steeler fan, I need to think about next year's draft. We'll have a high one. We need a primo Left-Tackle. And maybe let some other organization choose it for us. After the LT, maybe finally get a CB who can catch a ball.

Since the loss came from the defense...
All the commentaries are showing me my analysis is correct - there can't be turnovers, yet, because of our rebuilding phase... which this clearly is, BTW. The good veterans of yesteryear are gone, and with them the professionalism in the locker room. But the current state reveals a lot about last year's decision making: we thought we had the talent to make another 12-4 run. But because of injuries - and I believe that's the answer for last year's woes (plus the poisoned superstar pills of Wallace and Mendenhall) - we didn't have the consistency we needed. If we had in 2012 a healthy Harrison, Polamalu, Big Ben, and Antonio Brown for all 16 games, we'd have been around 12-4 again.

This is not the issue for 2013. We got rid of a HUGE number of people in order to get younger and (possibly) cheaper. With that, we've lost even more leadership: Max Starks, Harrison, Charlie Batch, Casey Hampton. These dudes obviously had enough talent, and even more leadership. We don't have that this year and you can see the fallout. But in the interest of the future, we needed to go younger.

What I saw in game 4 is that our offense is finally getting in shape, despite the crucial deficit in the o-line (see below about Levi Brown). It's amazing that the commentaries all lambasted Todd Haley, the OC, for 3 weeks and in game 4 he's finally doing well. Amazing what having your #1 TE, #1 RB, #1 FB will do, eh? The offense finally scored enough to win the game, it's the defense that let us down.

Same thing happened last year! And if Ben (and to a lesser extent AB) hadn't been injuried in the Chiefs game, I'd like to think we'd have kept the pace up and been around 12-4; we were that good.  The 2012 defense started badly and slowly but got great at the end, despite no turnovers.

 I'm thinking the same thing could happen this year, but with these caveats: (1) last year, the turnovers didn't come because we didn't have Harrison and Polomalu, (2) this year it's because we have a very young O-line (no more Hampton) which doesn't occupy the middle like we used to, and the middle LB - because of injuries - are 2 freakin' newbies! Vince Williams a rookie 7th rounder and Kion Wilson who was selling insurance last year. Our middle is so soft that it doesn't allow pressure to the edges and it forces the safeties to play linebacker. This neutralizes Polomalu and seems to have nerfed Clark.

Then again, given the number of rookies and over-fined vets, our defense could also be nerfing themselves so we don't give up 15 yard penalties all the time.  Our defense, with our as old-school as definitionally possible DC,  may not be able to adjust to the frankly chaotic rules changes.  Every team may suffer, but it could be the Steelers most of all.  The refs don't know how to call the imaginary penalties and this could make our group so flaccid.  Maybe.

The Levi Brown trade...
This incident shows how much the commentariat fire too fast. And how much trust has been lost.  The Steelers Lounge guys are a case in point - they made a special podcast on Wed afternoon to declare how horribly stupid the Steelers FO is - that they would dump 4 million dollars on a terrible LT!  They are desperate!!  Wah!!!   And I listened to them, and the entire basis for their freakout is that we paid too much.  They admitted b'ferush that if we paid "vet minimum" that the deal would be actually good. 

Which turned out to be precisely the case.

They haven't made another podcast since the full facts were announced LATER THAT AFTERNOON.  And so we can use them as an example of the standard internet paper tiger bluster: goin' nuts because of false information and too arrogant to admit error.

But these guys are experts and their doomsaying reveals a problematic context: they feel that the past few years has shown the poor decisions of the regime of Tomlin/Colbert and once the trust has been lost, it takes a lot of counter info to clean the slate.  The past few drafts have been just terrible.

Tomlin not Colbert

But let's look at the record: Colbert has been GM since 2000.  The drafts from then have been basically good.  When did things go terribly?  Well, Tomlin came aboard in 2007.  Look at this 2011 chart of his picks - there's a lot of busts in there, especially in the most recent years (2012 is a freakin' disaster).  It's possible to blame our previous success (see here, #5), that we can't pick higher because we're too good etc.  Except first and second rounders are supposed to be really good, no matter the draft position.  And Gilbert & Adams are both second rounders!

Until I see more information about Tomlin (so far, he's shown to be a bad evaluator of talent and a terrible in-game manager, and as seen in the disarray of 2012, a very bad disciplinarian) I will still blame the bad drafts on the bad position coaches.   Which, yeah, still goes back to Tomlin's lack of talent evaluation, but at least its one step removed.

Steelers, Week 3, Quick Thoughts

Yet another three-day holiday arriving, so I'll need to make this quick:

1. Can the Steelers stop playing night games? I'm getting used to the nobility of losing, but its freakin' tiring.

2. One word: snakebit. Explanation: When looked at logically, we're going through a major transition. We changed 4 key coaches in a year or so (OC, O-line, Receivers, Special teams), and if you see the history of the current team, page 28 here, you'll see 18 of the 53 man roster has come to the team in the past few months. That's the definition of transition. Then add onto that the serious crazy injuries all at once, and you have "bad luck." Or, as I think it can be put, "snakebit."

3. No massive injuries for another week. whew.

4. Heath is back! HEEEEEEATH!!

5. As someone put it, I think on Steelers lounge, that the Patriots are in the same boat as the Steelers - it's the price of success over the past decade. The Steelers have been to 3 Superbowls and been the top of the charts... which means we're an old team whose needed to draft at the dregs. At a certain point, parity catches up. But the Patriots have a way easier division than we have, so they have - logically - been able to stay better longer. Also, Brady is a safer QB.

6. All that said, I do think the o-line is slow to be good. As they said on Sunday night, this too is logical since they are so inexperienced. I have hope that they will gel and develop over the year. This can only be expected. However, we still have to wonder why our second round picks, Gilbert & Adams, aren't better than they are. So I wonder, how does scouting work? Is it done by the position coach? Because we seem to have incredible success with wide-receivers but terrible quality O-line. Its probable that the current coach is doing the best he can with crappy athletes. It's possible that the previous coach either selected badly, and/or coached badly, and the current guy has to do an Obama on the Iraq War that's the o-line.

7. Let's not forget that our defense started slow last year and got better. Why, I dunno. But I also know that our defense has had some key injuries: our #1 inside linebacker is out for the season and have been replaced with 2 rookies (and that is almost unheard of in LeBeau's defense), and our #2 CB is out. It's a bad sign when rookies are doing the play-calling and our HOF safety has to play pickup linebacker! I hope they rookies, like the o-line, will improve over the season. And, hey, maybe Sean Spence will play! (Again, the snakebit injury bug).

8. Let's be clear, while they talked about reload not rebuild last year, this is clearly a rebuilding year... so they better rebuild!

9. If this disaster continues, we may be lucky enough to get our next QB in the 2014 draft... maybe an Andrew Luck type who can stay in the pocket and outthink the opponents.

10. As for these past few weeks, I hear a lot of bellyaching by the fans and commentariat and they seem to adopt the Tomlin BS of ignoring the impact of injuries. It's an ideological/coaching point to parrot "the standard is the standard." But I'm not a coach, I deal with facts - and to understand cause/effect you can't let ideology blind you to facts (see my rant about the 2000 election). So if you asked me why we're 0-3, I'd say that since we played 3 tough teams (2-1, 2-1, 3-0) without our #1 center, #1 & 2 Tight ends, #1 ILB, #2 CB, #1 FB, #1 RB, that we would likely be 0-3. For the Bears, we just got fullback and top TE back and our offense looked better; let's see how much better the O-line will look when we get our top RB & #2 TE back!

11. You can't deny that the defense, week after week, stopped their best players, for the most part. It really was the turnovers.

12. About the Felix Jones fumble - he got walloped in the head, dude. Jim Brown had 57 career fumbles, over 9 years (118 games, that's an average of 1 every 2 games, 0.48 a game). Eric Dickerson, 78 over 10 years, 146 games (.53 a game). OK, so Barry Sanders is 41 over 153 games (whoa, 0.267!); but these things can be excused.

LEFTOVERS FROM WEEK 2
13. Don't give up on the running game. we NEED the running game, if anything to help give the defense a rest.

14. I see this a lot: “According 2 @EliasSports, 115 NFL teams have started 0-3 since '90. Only '92 SD, '95 DET, '98 BUF made playoffs” This is proof more than anything that we need to teach people how to use statistics.

15. How to get better for next week? I think time is the healer here. Let the O-line practice together more! That will really help. Back to fundamentals... because that's what sucks here.

16. About tomlin: he's so close to the chest. Does he know he messed up? We can't tell from his public comments, and we should know we will NEVER know from his public comments.

17. Other silver linings: we have actually been much better about penalties and special teams. That is encouraging!

18. Another example about facts and cause/effect, look at how people judge Brady vs. Manning. Manning is thought as not as good as Brady because of post-game failures. Except that many of those failures came because the Patriots clearly cheated. Just as Bush did in 2000. A win counts de-jure, but de-facto cheating doesn't make reality. Brady is great, but Manning is incredible.

Steelers Week 2, Quick comments

So, the silver lining of our latest humiliating beat-down, is that no pro-bowl starter had a season ending injury. That's how bad things are in Pittsburgh... that's our silver lining. Look, I hope the signs are right and the AFC is as bad as it looks because the AFC North looks like its going to be won with 9-7 and the wildcard may also be 9-7 (see 2002).

Another silver lining is that we're actually getting better. I can't blame Haley for this, because our problem is (a) the key offensive players are currently injured, some for the year; (b) the rest of the key offensive players are either rookies or joined the team after the preseason. Logically, I can't expect them to play that well, especially against two very good defensive teams.

The defense also has two rookies as inside linebackers! And we need, NEED, turnovers!

I do feel things will get better, but I think we need to wait until Heath is back... and even better when Spaeth can join him.

And if you see what the Patriots are going through, if they played the Titans and Bengals maybe they'd be 0-2.

More later.

What the Steeler Reporters Seem to miss

Ed Bouchette is a veteran Steelers reporter. Yet he fails to see a key fact in his recent article attacking the Steeler running game. Part of the problem is Tomlin's cliches, specifically "the standard is the standard" and ignoring injuries. Yes, injuries aren't an excuse... for the TEAM; but for those who analyze cause and effect of wins and losses the injuries are a huge deal.

So our running game is (still) poor. How do you get a good running game? The components are in order of importance (reverse logarithmic importance) (a) line play, (b) play calling, (c) the back. Without an o-line, the RB won't get anywhere, and the opposite is true. In 2012, our best running games were Weeks 7-9, and Week 7 was Dwyer (122 yds) Wk 8 Dwyer (107), Wk 9 was Redman (147). And those two guys are NOT GOOD. So how did they get 100+ games? The o-line and the o-line only. And we can't forget the o-line includes Tight Ends.

So, let's see who was injured in week 1:
Heath Miller, 1st Tight End, under-rated pro-bowler
Matt Spaeth, 2nd Tight End
Will Johnson, 1st string Fullback
Le'Veon Bell, 1st string Running-back

That list means we were automatically not going to have a quality running game. Decent maybe, based on line-play, but with these best guys out, what quality could we have? And then the roof caved in: Maurkice Pouncey, all-pro center gets blown apart. Which ruins our entire O-line, just plain ruins it. And add onto it, the best blocking "TE", Beachum, needs to move to center.

This doesn't excuse the loss, according to Tomlin's Rules. But this set of facts explains why we had no running game in Week 1. Don't confuse 'is' and 'ought' - don't forget the facts when trying to understand our running game woes.


P.S. Quick point about Ndamukong Suh: if you want to see what a sociopath sounds like, watch Suh. He sounds like a reasonable, personable guy... but that's what a standard sociopath does. He's just a stone cold psycho.

Steelers Week 1, more comments

1. Tunch & Wolf are mystified why we fans are giving up hope (the hometown fans abandoned the stadium quickly, it was so ugly). Well it's because of the 0-4 preseason, which showed that last year's problems had not been fixed: no o-line, no running game, no defensive turnovers. We lost 5 of the last 7 in 2012, all preseason, and now game one in the HOME OPENER. There's reason to think the team not only will suck, but that the coaches don't have a clue how to fix it.

2. I asked the 'depot: does the salary of an IR player hit the cap? Dave Bryan says they do. That sucks. But Bryan emphasizes that the players you pick up in September do not hit your cap that much anyway.

3. Tomlin has much to blame here. When he says "the standard is the standard", I'm not certain he places any standards on himself. The team has been getting worse since 2010, not better, and in ways we all recognized. Moreover, his game-time decision making is very poor. We can all rip Rex Ryan for putting Sanchez in the 4th quarter of a pre-season game, leading to an inevitable injury (playing behind a non-cohesive, 3rd string, o-line = no protection), but Tomlin did the same bad thing. He used "LaSH" as his primary back instead of Felix Jones, who was dressed for the game! LaSH is a small, fragile back that you use for maybe 20 carries a game as a change of pace back. And when Tomlin used him on 5 straight carries, he broke. Why dress Jones?

4. There are more key problems from Tomlin, who has not shown me that he can do the job he was hired to do. This hurts me to say, because I think he's a cool character and I like him being the face of the franchise. But he can't coach, can't prepare players, can't improve the problems, and apparently can't draft well.

See these for more: Mike Tomlin Should Be on the Hot Seat | Bleacher Report & Homer's Take

5. For the record, I put some key blame on Defense. They failed to get off the field on key 3rd downs, and AGAIN no turnovers. Yet unlike offense, they had all of their starters! What was their excuse?

6. Some random thoughts: We just pay too much money to old vets and can't use the money to improve o-line. With pouncey out, maybe we'll again get Starks back. And its crazy that everyone in the division lost, but (a) Ravens & Bengals were *away* (b) both were playing against teams with winning records in 2012 (esp. the freakin' Broncos with Peyton Manning!) After we saw the Ravens lose, and with the Bengals playing away a 10-6 team, this was the week to win (holding aside we were playing a poor team at home). Gevalt.

Steelers Week 1, Quick Thoughts

1. Since I've been following the team with daily devotion, they have been playing terribly (mid-2011). So, sorry Steelers fans, this all may be my fault.

2. More accurately, though, it's clearly the coaches fault. You can tell this because the defense is consistently good - because they have a hall-of-fame coach, and the rest of the team has been laughable.

3. If asked at the beginning of the year which players we couldn't lose I'd say, in order, (a) Roethlisberger (b) Polamalu, (c) Pouncey. Well, we still have 2 of 3. Sadly, Pouncey was the one I expected to actually play all 16 games.

4. The silver linings for today's catastrophic rash of injuries - 3 critical starters - are (a) we've so recently cut people that can be possible replacements that they haven't lost their conditioning; and (b) more importantly, since Tomlin never knows when to allow a starter to get healthy, since these guys are gone for the year, the team can actually try playing with one person for the whole rest of the year. This is especially so for the O-line. The line needs to work as a consistent stable unit, and past few years, Tomlin would toss people in and out based on their fluctuating health. So now, I hope, we can get some dude to be a center and not try different permutations every week, which would guarantee a year of failure.

5. Note, I only listened to the game live, so I don't know how bad they looked. My view that things may not be a total disaster could change when I see the actual game.

6. I'd like to remind everyone that we started the game with our starting running-back and our 2 starting Tight Ends out with injuries. And when Pouncey went down, that meant that every offensive plan of the pre-season went up in smoke. You won't have a running game, or decent passing, with an on-the-fly O-line. Yes, sadly, the Steelers (offensive) coaches just don't seem to know how to train the backups to take over. But it happened all last year (we started to suck when both Big Ben and Antonio Brown were injured; not to mention the standard o-line idiocy).

7. I keep harping on the bad coaching because when I see other top-tier teams play, they plainly don't suck like the Steelers do for the past 3 years. I saw Green Bay vs. SF today. What a difference! It's like the Yankees vs. the Mets. GB & SF don't have better players than the Steelers, they have way better coaching.

8. If we get our RB & TEs back, especially Heath Miller, and if the Steelers get the new center to train a week with the O-line to form a unit, I'm assuming we'll play better. That will be the test - if we still suck after those conditions are met, then we're lost.

Ward: Steelers locker room in 'total disarray'

This should sound familiar because I've been saying this for months:

Ward suggested the recent departure of acknowledged team leaders — he didn't mention them, but they include Ward, James Farrior and Aaron Smith — has badly hurt the Steelers' internal chemistry. “When you lose so much leadership in the locker room, that is where things present itself like that,” Ward told the NFL Network on Friday. (Ward: Steelers locker room in 'total disarray' | TribLIVE: )

Pre-Superbowl Thoughts

As I've mentioned before, I need need need San Francisco to lose. In my ranking of Superbowl fun, in fact, the number 1 is for the Steelers to win (of course) and number 2 is for SF to lose! Seriously.* So even though on a normal Sunday I can't abide the Ravens, I will gleefully root for them to ruin the 9ers perfect record.

I should add the caveat that since I'm an old-school fan, my hatreds go to older teams: Cowboys and Raiders. I don't care about the Browns and Bengals, and the Oilers are long gone (ontologically, did they become the Titans or the Texans? I vote for the latter). There are teams I don't have any respect for, true: (1) Jets - who are pathetic from top-to-bottom, (2) Seattle - because they have an unfair home-field advantage, (c) the Broncos for the same reason, but I still like Elway, (d) the Saints since Bountygate. The only modern day team that I can't stand are the Patriots and that's actually only about Belichick. When he leaves, I may be able to tolerate my brother & son's favorite team.

But the Ravens? I respect them; I have laughed at the fact that they never made the big show while the Steelers did thrice, even if I can't say that now. There are things to like about them, which boil down to the things the Steelers do: (1) they recruit and scout well, all because of Ozzie Newsome and this is a lost message for NFL fans. Unless you have a superlative athlete (e.g. Lawrence Taylor or Troy Polamalu) success comes from coaching, team attitude, and astute bargain-hunting in the draft; (2) the Ravens are a ground-n-pound team with a solid defense. This is the Steelers DNA and it's not surprising the Ravens also hold that way. One way to understand NFL history is that rivals can either go in two directions, for these purposes I'll call them the Ravens or the Browns. When you have a great rival you can try to match them - like the Ravens do the Steelers - or you can basically just give up, like the Browns have done for decades.**

Anyway, I need the 49ers to lose, and once they beat the hapless Falcons (can that team ever sustain a lead??) I needed the Patriots to lose to the Ravens for two reasons: (1) SF has to lose and the Belichick Curse means the Patriots need to lose a SB for each one they cheated to win, and they have 1 more to go, so SF would've won! The second reason is more mystical, but since SF is coached by Jim Harbaugh, I felt that only a Harbaugh can beat a Harbaugh. And while I as a rule root for little brothers, in this case you go with the older brother, who's more used to creaming his little bro. Jus' sayin'.

So besides the above iron rule, there are two reasons I think the Ravens will win, besides the general feeling that any team that can march through Mile High and Foxboro and beat 2 of the best QBs ever - on the road - versus SF who almost lost to the pathetic Falcons in a dome. The two reasons are:
(1) While Colin Kaepernick is impressive, I don't trust rookie QBs in big games.*** Technically it's his second year, but he didn't start until November 19 2012! I think the gravity of the Superbowl, and the weight of Montana/Young, will be hard to handle for him. On the other side you have grizzled veterans, and especially Joe Flacco who is an underrated big-league QB who seems to have no fear (his eyes suggest serial killer, not as much as Schaub, who doesn't help matters with his skinhead crewcut and prominent Adam's apple). I think SF has gotten far with a good defense, good running, and a surprise QB, but I believe the Ravens are nastier, older, and even more physical.


The second reason is that (2) the 49ers kicker is basket case. If that persists, SF will have trouble, even in a dome. Special Teams is still underrated, and the Ravens have been superlative in that.

My score prediction (caveat: I suck at this): Ravens 21, 49ers 20.


And one comment about Harbaugh v. Harbaugh. I'm actually serious about that, a bit, because the advantage each brother has over others is that Harbaughz Iz Crazy! They do aggressive risky things, and this catches their opponents off guard. But these two idiots have been competing against each other for 40+ years! They know the others' temperament and tendencies. This is crucial, to me, because I desperately need the 9ers to lose.

How Can a Steeler Fan (Me) Root for Baltimore?

There are people are outraged that actual Steelers who are rooting for the Ravens. They want the good old days when you hated the rival team. What the haters don't get is that the 'team' doesn't exist in the same way after free-agency/salary cap. E.g. Rod Woodson is one of the best Steelers of all time, but he played for 3 other teams, including the hated Ravens and Raiders! After retirement he identifies as a Steeler, but the players themselves have to know it's just a business and they can move on. So I full understand why the players not only don't hate a rival team, but they can actually like 'em. I've also read that many players, when on the field and the game clock is running, would ram their own mama's if they're wearing the other jersey. This also is part of Football.

I also agree with Lamarr Woodley who said that he's hoping the Ravens win, for one reason because: "the Baltimore Raven are in our division so it makes our division look good." I agree with that wholeheartedly! I have pride in my team, my birth-city, and when it comes to Football, my division. I was proud when we had 3 teams from the AFC-N in last year's playoffs! And maybe I just think more like one of the players than the fans, but I think Woodley shows a healthy sportsmanlike attitude.

Also, if the Ravens win that means that the Steelers were able to beat that year's world champs at home with a third string Quarterback. Heh heh heh.

FOOTNOTES:
* = Number 3 is for Steelers to lose, because at least they've increased their appearances, Number 4-7 would be for the Browns, Lions, Vikings and Bills to be in and lose, unless its to one of the hated rivals (e.g. Patriots, Cowboys, Raiders etc). I think these guys getting in would be funny - Lions & Browns have never gone, and Vikes & Bills have gone 4 times and lost all of them. I guess I'm supposed to hate the Eagles, but I basically try not to think about Philly at all (which is tough now that I live in Central NJ).

** = This is part of my grand theory for why the NFC were dominant for the 13 year stretch of 1985 to 1997. The first point is context - most of this was during the era before free agency, which meant that once you built a superstar team you were able to keep those players and just dominate. That's why we had so many dynasties back then, and why none now (Patriots don't count because they cheated, period. But the closest way to get a dynasty now is to get a superstar QB, e.g. Colts under Manning). So the reason why the NFC was dominant comes down to two people (1) Bill Walsh and (2) Lawrence Taylor. The simple one first: (a) Walsh (like Newsome above) was able to both build up his team with an eye for talent (Montana, Rice, Young), and (b) he was an incredible coach who was able to drive this unchanging roster of people to their top performance (people say that Montana was not a superlative athlete but Walsh made him so, FWIW). So this is why SF was so dominant. The (2) Lawrence Taylor factor reflects the second point above about the Steelers/Ravens - LT was so incredible that he forced the other teams in his division - specifically the Cowboys & Redskins - to react. Joe Gibbs, another genius coach, could have given up and accepted that LT was going to destroy them every game. Instead Gibbs basically invented the "Hogs" - a superlative offensive-line. There were more innovations, but basically because of a great player, and great coaches, the NFC East reacted and had to become great. I don't think the AFC had this quality coach (Noll lost steam after '80... I blame Reagan) and the unfree-agency cuts both ways. A great team can dominate the conference - Bills, Broncos - but just not have the oomph to overcome the NFC's twin advantages.

*** = This years' rookies have been so hyped, it's nuts. There are two big reasons they've all been great and why I believe next year they'll crash to earth: (1) there's not enough tape on rookies, so defenses don't know all their tricks. One off-season of studying and look what happened to, e.g., Cam Newton. Rookies have that advantage of surprise and I don't give them credit for it until they can keep it up for more than a year. A second advantage is that these QBs - RG3 in DC, Wilson in Seattle, Kaepernick, is that their coaches are letting them run with the ball. The now acceptable "read option" (which was mocked when Tebow was doing it... mainly because Timmy doesn't throw a normal ball, but still it's ironic) - allows the QB to run. But as we saw with RG3, running is extremely dangerous for your expensive QB. In today's NFL, the QB is more important than any other player, and if you've got a top-notch QB you don't risk him flying down the field. If the coaches let these rookies keep running then they will all end up like RG3. People are fooled because Kapernick hasn't played enough to risk the injuries, and Russel Wilson got to hide behind his damned stadium. Anyway, the read option won't survive long in the NFL because of those two reasons - which the short-sighted sports reporters are ignoring - and also because Defenses catch up quick in the NFL.

NFL Conference Championships

This is a Steeler fan nightmare. Not only did my SB prediction go kaflooey - it turns out my sports prediction is as bad as my Oscar ones - but 3 of the 4 survivors are bad news for Steeler fans. The best I can hope for is a Falcons/Ravens superbowl, and that isn't likely to happen. Every single team I've rooted against in the playoffs have won. EVERY ONE! You could set your watch, or better yet bet your watch, on my rooting interest. Gevalt!

I've said this before but it bears repeating: the Steelers are the best NFL team in the Superbowl era because they're tied for the most SB appearances (8, tied with Dallas) but have the most wins (6). See this wiki page for my data pool.

Two teams now threaten those records, one severely. As it stands, here are the records of the remaining teams, the # of SB, & their win-loss record:

Atlanta Falcons: 1 SB, 0-1 (0.000)
Baltimore Ravens: 1 SB, 1-0 (1.000)
New England Patriots: 7 SB, 3-4 (.429)
San Francisco 49ers: 5 SB, 5-0 (1.000)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8 SB, 6-2 (0.750)

So if it's a Patriots-49er Superbowl, the most likely scenario, then it's the worst for Steeler fans, because (a) the Patriots will join the elite 8-SB club, which is OK given we share that distinction with the hated cowboys, but (b) if the 49ers win then they will not only have 6 Superbowls but will have a perfect record! AUGH!

What makes this worse is that the Patriots, if they do go to SB 47, will almost definitely lose. This is because of the Spygate Karma Rule. Ya see, I've done my own research and it's clear that Bill Belichick's cheating won the Patriots their 2001, 2003, and 2004 Superbowls. The evidence is overwhelming, albeit circumstantial given Goodall's incompetence, and I can show my data at a later time.

The Karma rule states that they need to lose a SB for every one they cheated in. They have 2 down - and both to the Giants - so they need one more. Which means if they play San Fran they will lose and thus the worst scenario for Steelers has occurred - the Patriots will tie our SB number, the 49ers will tie our wins but have a perfect record.

So even though it hurts to root for the Ravens in the AFC playoff, in the long view, it's better if they win than the hated cheating Patriots. And maybe, just maybe, the Falcons can pull it off. I'm hoping for Atlanta to pull a Bettis for Tony Gonzalez's sake.

Gonzalez is one of the best Tight Ends ever and he's never won a Superbowl. He's likely to retire at any moment. So just like the Steelers rallied to win Superbowl 40 to get Bettis his ring (which is an unparalleled story), maybe Atlanta can do that for Tony.

Note, this sounds like what the Ravens are doing about Ray Lewis except for three things: (1) Lewis won a SB already, (2) Gonzalez is a better person, and (3) the Harbaughs (both) are schmucks and deserve to lose.

Steelers - "Post" Season, part 2

My philosophy about the draft: there's a cliche that you're supposed to draft the 'best player' when your number comes up. I guess it should be assumed but everyone needs to repeat this caveat, but it's still based on your team's depth. For example, the Steelers don't need a first-round QB because Ben is still doing well (even if he is dumb, stubborn and I would trade him for Peyton/Brees/Brady/Rodgers because those guys seem to know how to follow a complex offense) and has around 4 years left in him, and a rookie in 2013 will be a free-agent by the time we need him. Depending on Ben's performance and health next year will determine whether we go for one in '14+.

I think what I get from the cliche (which is not what others say) is that I need to think of "first round" as All-Pro (especially if you draft in the first half). And given that, we can ask, do we need an All-Pro in that position? Here are my thoughts:

1. QB see above. Because it's a big risk, that if we draft an RG3 (for example), when would we use him?

2. All defense: this is a Steelers Culture issue. As I said earlier Dick LeBeau, the HOF defensive coordinator, gets #1 defenses and part of his MO is (a) to train and develop the players for a few years before they can start, (b) this training can turn low round guys into top quality (cf. Harrison).

3. O-Line: enough years of loading up on O-line has shown me that the problem is the coach and not the players (although stinkers like Kemoeatu had to go). But I think we have enough depth in this that we shouldn't waste a 1st round *even if a probowler is available*

4. Wide Receivers - This is one of the only positions where I think they actually have depth. I know Wallace is almost guaranteed to not be here next year and there are many who want his like again, but (a) he stunk this year, (b) Brown is better, (c)
from what I've been able to analyze, its much more important to have 2 halfway decent receivers than 1 real threat. In the former, the defense needs to cover both, in the latter they just need to double team (or have 1 great corner). How well has Larry Fitzgerald done for the past few years?

More soon.

Steelers - "Post" Season, part 1

A few comments before today's game:

1. Seems like Polamalu agrees with me:

“James Farrior was a great leader here for a long time. So was Hines [Ward], Jerome [Bettis]; so was Joey [Porter],” he said. “James was not Joey, and Hines was not Jerome, but they definitely led in their own ways. So I think when you look for a leader, there‘s no need to look for the same cast those guys are built out of. You just look for someone who will step up that someone respects, and some of that is really natural.”

“When I look at the personnel that you lose, and I say, ‘Can we actually win a Super Bowl without them? Could we win a Super Bowl without Hines? Could we win a Super Bowl without James Farrior?‘ I think it‘s obvious that we can. But it took us a while to adjust when we lost Jerome. So I think this is kind of that adjustment period.”

Of course we shouldn't forget that the last time we had a disappointing losing season, 2009, had a strong similarity with this year in one big way: Polamalu was injured for much of the year. The stats are astounding.

2. When dealing with the draft and next season, there are things people have been saying we need. There's a saying that 1st round pick should be a passer, pass rusher, or pass-protector (Left-Tackle). OK, as far as it goes. But a few weeks ago, I was saying that we need to draft a Tight End, and that was before Heath got hurt! I will explain why.

My thinking was this: our defense is #1 this year (see below for more) and we lost not because of them but because of cruddy offense and special teams. I think we have talent for ST and all we need is a halfway decent coach. But what about offense?

Well, we were humming in the middle of the season; we had a running game and we were protecting Ben very well. Why/How? Because the o-line was finally working. What I hope is that now that we got rid of O-Line Coach Kugler - who I've disliked the moment I found out that he was the former ooach in Buffalo when they - whoda guessed it - had massive O-line imjuries. The guy is a problem and good riddance.

So with a better coach, maybe our O-line will be as good as they should be and that will mean that our running game will suddenly be good. Which will mean Haley's offense should shine. Those 3 games (Cincy 1, Washington, Giants) were indicative of what we should have been. Ironically the most indicative games were Cleveland and San Diego. Those games weren't lost because of our new Offensive philosophy but because our players weren't playing up to their necessary level. And I blame that on either (a) bad training and coaching, or (b) the fact that the players were spending so much time learning a complicated new offense that they didn't have time to spend on fundamentals. This especially goes for the Wide Receivers and Running Backs. One more year of training will help 'em.

So why do I think we should draft a Tight End? Because (a) the only spot where we have real depth is WR, and it's crazy to waste a 1st Round pick on WR anyway; but more (b) given Haley's offense, we need a TE because of the West-Coast offense (aka 'dink and dunk'). If we had another Heath Miller, or a Gronkowski, can you imagine how awesome the offense would be? Short passing would excel and a HM type would also support the O-line.

The other opinions say to get a pass-rusher. I think that this 'common sense' doesn't apply to the Steelers because (a) we need to see if Harrison will be able to rise back to his standard level, because he's still talented and as far as I know his contact restricts us; (b) all defensemen take at least a 2 years or more to learn LeBeau's defense. So I think our 1st rounders should go to immediate use (cf. Cameron Hayward).

Some comments that I will expand after the game:

3. A dude on Grantland made a good point, that the Steelers follow the pattern of teams with old players are almost always near the cap which limits depth (BTW, the older players should hate this system because it encourages firing them for cheaper rookies). The Steelers defense is old and many players seem not to be able to make it a full year. And this is part of the coaching/management culture and I'm not sure if it'll change.

4. The defense is probably better in stats than they should be because our special teams was so poor, and there were so many turnovers, that the defense had to deal with a lot of short fields. Also since the offense was so poor, and porous, the defense didn't have to give up a lot of points for the team to lose.

5. Our problem this year, IMO, actually wasn't injuries (except for the OL, and I blame Kugler, see above) given that our failures came from WR who couldn't run routes right and didn't try to get tough catches (especially the turkey, Mike Wallace). Also Rothlesberger, after his injury, was getting gun-shy, I believe. People think his new kid may be affecting his sleep, I think if anything it's making him re-evaluate his mortality. The big lug may be done.

6. A last question: has Tomlin actually drafted well? The great people seem to still be holdovers from Cowher: Big Ben, Polamalu, Heath Miller.

Steelers Week 16

I've said many of these things before, but Sunday is our first play-off game, because if we lose to the Bengals - and I'm afraid we will - we will be out of the playoffs. But I hear a bunch of Steelers radio and these experts seem to be missing the big picture, and maybe because they know more than I do and thus underplay the issues I'm about to discuss, except for the following story.

After I blogged the first long Steelers post, a few weeks later I actually called into the Tunch & Wolf show on 970 ESPN. These guys (2 former O-linemen, from the sad 80s) are a lot of fun. Anyway, I mentioned to them that its probable that our troubles are from the fact that we have a new OC, a new special-teams coach, and we cut most of the leader-veterans. This is not even taking the injuries into account, which have been so significant, that people are finally talking about them. Why that's special is because "the standard is the standard" - i.e. every team gets injuries, etc. Except that some teams the injuries are so significant that it ruins their year... I'd say that's a major part of the Jets meltdown - they lost their two best players (1 considered the best Defensive Back alive, and another pro-bowl WR who was a Superbowl MVP).

However, as I had said, and people just seem to miss: our problem is clearly a coaching problem, but it may be unavoidable. And that's because back in March-April the cognoscenti asked the Steelers: "are you in a rebuilding year" and the answer "we don't rebuild, we just reload." That, to me, ranks with the line from Predator: "ain't go time to bleed." People love that line, uttered with swagger by Jessie Ventura, and it's all about him being a superman macho hero. But in context it was actually mocked by his fellow hero, who considers the utterance inane. And that's how I feel about the rebuild/reload line. Because sometimes you need to rebuild, and if you don't do it right, then it won't be effective.

Look we have a new OC, and we fired our Special Teams coach. Why is anyone surprised that our Special Teams stinks! Why is anyone surprised that any time there's a slight glitch, our offense falls apart. My theory is that all the offensive players are spending so much time learning the new - and complicated - Haley Offense, that they aren't spending time on their fundamentals. Like knowing how to catch a ball (I'm looking at you Mike Wallace) or how to hold onto the ball (I'm looking at everyone). Generally, I believe that WR must be the second dumbest guys on the field (#1 is likely the D-line) and it will take them some time to catch up to the new offense. This can explain the interceptions - because they don't know how to run the routes (another fundamental).

The 'rebuilding' issue has been exacerbated by the bad attitudes of two key players, our #1 receiver (Wallace) and #1 running-back (Mendenhall). Mendenhall is a jerk, so good riddance, but Wallace is a dumb prima-donna who has not been exerting himself nearly enough. And this is what makes the situation so tragic: the reason, I believe, we reloaded and didn't rebuild is because we had a special set of circumstances vis-a-vis those 2 players, plus the aging of other key players. For all we know, this could be the last year of Polamalu & Harrison, 2 of the best we have. Roethlisberger is getting older and QBs have a bulls-eye on his head; Heath Miller is one year younger. Too much of our talent is getting old!

I think the team we should be is the one from weeks 7-9: our O-line was intact and so was our running game; Big Ben and the receivers were clicking and humming. And then the Chiefs game. First of all, we played down to our opponents (someone gave stats that showed that this is a historic Steelers problem, and it's probably part of the culture) - which this year I think is a sign of the amount of hard memorizing work that the offense has had to endure with the new OC. But also when there's a key injury - and game 9 hurt our best receiver who is also our best kick-returner, Antonio Brown - we're like a Jaguar/sports-car. We hum and roar when all parts are working, but introduce one pebble and the car breaks down. Again, this SHOULD be expected for a team going through what we have.

I did call in again today to get more info about "rebuild" vs. "reload." What Tunch & Wolf said was that 'rebuild' means to clean house completely (e.g. what the Colts did at the end of 2011); what the Steelers always do, they say, is just make tweaks here and there. And that's why we've been so good so consistently. OK, I accept that.

However, we are paying the price for these tweaks - all of our stars have been injured this year for a long time and are not playing at a top level (even Big Ben, ever since the Chief's Game Injury, has been really gun-shy), and the young players are not doing well. The turnovers are insane!

Last point: the way I feel about the team this year reminds me of my dating days. When I would go out with someone, even for multiple weeks, there would quickly come a time when I would feel "this shouldn't be this hard." I meant that if she were "the one" then the dating process wouldn't have as many difficulties as would inevitably happen. I'd feel better after a date; the conversation would flow well; the sharing of ideas would be quick and bright. Basically, it would be fun. And when I met my future-wife, those problems didn't show up. I was right with my feeling - the other women were wrong and I knew it because it was too hard, not fun.

This is how I feel about the team this year (and last year): it is not fun. The team has great talent, but it's so not smooth; it shouldn't be this hard. I watch the Patriots, or Texans, and I see teams that just work. The Steelers just don't work this year. Heck, if we manage to win it all this year, I'll be proven wrong, and I will learn from it. But I think we shouldn't expect that with all of our reloading, and injuries, that we'd be better than we are right now.

Steelers vs. Giants

Despite the best efforts of the refs (no exaggeration, it was worse than the scab referees), the Steelers beat the Giants like hosanna-bundles (too obscure?).   More, possibly, later.  But here's a great pic (from the WDVE guys) to sum up the game, captioned "Terrified Eli":

Steelers Update

I think I can speak for Steelers fans in my reaction to Sunday night's win: whew. Some further thoughts, especially related to the previous post:

1. Again, like every Steeler fan, I'm sure the first quarter and a half (first 3/8ths?) of the game made your stomach grow cold. Boy was I scared. How many times do we need to (a) commit penalties on the kick-returns?, (b) drop passes?, (c) just suck on defense? It was terrible. I was having flashbacks to NY Met games. But then, somehow they got their act together about 8 minutes into the second quarter (after 2 turnovers, 3 billion dropped TDs, and being down 3 to 14).
   
2. Willy Colon takes credit for getting the team back in gear. He claims that he saw the Offense be dejected and lacking the eye of the tiger (I'm severely paraphrasing) and so he decided he needed to fire them up by some brutal blocking (see below)
   
3. Before the game Roethlisberger told the Offense that they need to take the responsibility at the end of the games, especially when they were in a one-possession lead, to NOT DEPEND ON THE DEFENSE. This definitely has been the Steelers moo, and rightly so, for years.* This new attitude is both mature and smart - our offense is now our strength, so use that. And this change could be one reason why we won.
   
4. Related to that, I have to give Tomlin credit. He always says that he plays to win, not to "not lose." So in the 4th Quarter, after an awesome 32 yard run reached the Bengals 8, the Steelers didn't go for the kill. We we 7 points ahead, could have made it 14 points, but instead they went for the victory kneel-down. It wasn't greedy (and despite my comment a few days ago, it's not what the Patriots would've done). It was classy.
   
5. Ike Taylor finally did his job well. I don't think we can rely on it too much, though. While A.J. Green is a great player, and Ike did shut him down, the Bengals demonstrated what happens when a team has only 1 good receiver. If you have man coverage of that 1 guy (did they double him?) then you can shut him down. I do hope it's a trend, but I won't bet on it.
   
6. Another issue is the neutralization of Harrison. The Sunday night guys did a good analysis and showed that Harrison's knee injury has severely reduced his effectiveness (see graphic below - last year he was able to slip by tackles with a 40 degree angle; now he's reduced to a 61). If he can't get back up to form, I don't know if he'll be anything better than an average linebacker.
   
   
7. Aside from the first 3/8ths, we reduced our crippling penalties for a second week in a row.

So how did we win? Besides the above, I think of 2 main keys:

1. No Injuries = I don't know how to keep that trend going, but I believe that when there's a major mid-game injury (and with us it's always multiples) the team doesn't adjust well. In this game we had none, and that's great (and a key to winning). See the graphic, again from the SNF guys, about who is already missing.
   
   
   
   
2. Next Man Up = Starter in Waiting; so let them start. Related to point 1, I've felt for a long time that the Steelers get into big trouble when they insist on starting a fragile player, just to see him break down mid-game and since we don't adjust well on the fly (probably because of the new OC and loss of major team captains, see previous post), we fall apart. But when our Next Man starts that also means he practices and trains during the week. Which means he plays well! Look at our O-Line. We lost 2 starters last week but despite that the O-Line was spectacular against the Bengals! Despite a back-up center (who's really good but not pro-bowl Pouncey level) and a flappable rookie (Mike Adams), we had only 3 sacks and - crucially - over 100 yards rushing from our 3rd string running back! Is Dwyer better than Redman/Mendenhall? Maybe. But no RB will be good behind an uncoordinated line!
   
   I think we're going to keep making this mistake, though. Tomlin seems to want to start the "best" players (remember 2011 when Big Ben played against SF even though he was immobilized?), even if they aren't fully healed. But the Bengals game shows that practice and preparation are worth more than a wounded pro-bowler.
   

I hope the trend continues. What we can hope for is for the major injuries to sort out by the last third of the season. I.e. if Polamalu actually heals up, and if Harrison's knee gets better, and if our first-rounder DeCastro heals, then we'll have our best players for the crunch time. And like the Giants last year - the issue isn't a stellar record, but who is healthy at the end of the season.

* I was just watching a taped game from 2009, Green Bay vs. Steelers (12-20, Week 15), and the difference in defense in huge! Back then we were swarming, fast moving, smothering. In 2012 we are old, possibly wiser, but not that scary looking.

Steelers Thoughts

My beloved Steelers are playing like a bunch of sick nuns. In general, the AFC seems to be in big trouble, and I can explain that (see below) but the Steelers woes are more serious than the general malaise of the conference. I've seen every game and the offense looks robust - until they make a dozen penalties - and the defense looks porous and pathetic. What are my options as a fan?

Give Up:
Steelers fans are generally used to winning. That's not why I'm so loyal (I'm a Met fan too), my allegiance comes from my attachment to my birthplace. I've moved around so often in my life (upwards of 20 moves) that I think my Steeler fanaticism is my way of maintaining a consistent identity. And I like Black and Gold.

Anyway, we're used to winning. We're tied for most Super Bowls appearances (8), and we have the most wins (6). What's also impressive is that the Steelers have been to more conference championships than any team (15! runners up are Cowboys with 14, 49ers with 13, and Raiders with 11). And 20 Division championships AFC Central: 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1983, 1984, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2001 AFC North: 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2010 (all data, and links, thanks to Wiki).

However, we've had our losing streaks. The late-Noll era, especially 1984-1992, is especially bleak. But even in the Roethlisberger era, when we went to the Superbowl 3 times in 6 years, we've slumped every third year. And that's this year. So I can be fatalistic and say we're due.

Another response is to recognize a few structural problems

1. The whole NFL is in trouble because of the referee-strike.

As I said in the previous post, I have no sympathy for the NFL owners. They screwed up spectacularly with the referee union. As a result the first 3 games of the season were not a reflection of each team's abilities.

Yeah, I can hear the yahoo say that it was the same for each team, or that official stats are the way they are, and that I'm just making excuses. To rebut this idiocy, I will remind y'all about the 2000 presidential election.

We all know, and presumably hate, that the 2000 win was given to George W Bush, but the facts said that Al Gore won. Bush "won" because he gamed the system, played the refs - as its called - and was able to sneak past the finish line. Yes, it's a win, but it teaches nothing about how politics normally (and ideally) works... since Bush cheated.

Anyone who looks at the lead-up to the election to learn from GWB about how to win is making a mistake because everything he did before election day was bad enough to make him lose. The only lesson for people who want to win is to know that you can make all sorts of mistakes and then cheat at the critical moment.

For example, if you use 2000 data to try to predict poll-number prediction for eventual victory, then you should use the data as if Gore won - because he did. To do otherwise is to fundamentally not understand cause and effect.

So here we are in week 6 and many pundits are saying how the AFC is bad because only 2 teams are above 500. Yet 3 is half of 6, and those 3 games are not acceptable data. So we really have no idea how good any of the teams are here in the early weeks because everyone's record is too loaded with noise. Wait a few more weeks, so to dilute the 3 games, and we can get a better picture of each team.

2. That said, the Steelers are pretty bad on the road.

We've played 2 games since the referee's have been reinstated and we lost to a "bad" team, the Titans. True, they could actually be pretty good, given the 3 week problem (dagnabit data) but probably not. This is why we fans are scared. I felt this way all last year but we still managed to finish 12-4 (and lost 2 of the first 4 games). However, it was the offense that was bad last year (bye bye Arians) and the defense kept us alive all year. Yet, by the playoffs, our defense disintegrated. The loss to Tebow was on the hands of the defense, O did fine.

I can make excuses. Out of the 5 games we played, there's an excuse for each bad performance:
1-3: refs
4: rusty from the bye
5: short week (thurs night game).

I can also bring up the catastrophic string of injuries. Yeah, all teams suffer, but gevalt! The Steelers are old, yeah, but one reason is because we lose so many people. In preseason we lost our 2012 round 1 and 3 draft picks to injury and every week we lose a pro-bowler or key starter. It's downright scary.

We would have won last week, seriously, if we didn't lose - in one game - our pro-bowl Center, 2 other O-lineman, and our 2 starting Running backs. ONE GAME! We already were missing our hall-of-fame Safety (Troy Polamalu) and the key matchup of Batman-Robin (aka Harrison and Woodley)

Most commenters (e.g. Bleacher) ignore the above factors or dismiss them as whining (cf. 2000 election above).

However, nobody has mentioned something we were all talking about just few months ago. Again, we want to know why there's been so many penalties - ascribed to lack of discipline - and inconsistent defense.

Let's remember that this past Spring the Steelers fired: (1) the offensive coordinator (deservedly) and (2) all three player captains! Offense captain Hines Ward, Defense captain James Farrior, and special teams captain Arnaz Battle.

With leadership gutted (plus major starters injured, especially on defense) no wonder it's taken so long to get disciplined! A new OC can take a long time to get a handle on things; Farrior was a leader and the defense play-caller.

I wonder if leadership is the cause of the massacre of injuries. Bad coaching can lead to safety ignorance or something, especially on the O-Line (Sean Kugler has now had 3 years of annihilated O-Lines! I'm suspicious)

Culture Problem

Another major issue is that even if we keep our current players un-injured, we probably won't make it to the playoffs. The defense is too old and our cornerback problem is acute. Our running-backs are mediocre and they won't go anywhere with the craptascular O-Line we seem cursed with Ironically, the only part of the team which is superb is the passing attack. We've got a top-5 QB, 3 great WR, and a great TE. Logic says we should emphasize our strengths. Ah, but then there's Steeler Culture.

We've always been known as a top-notch defense plus a grinding running attack. And, to be honest, that's how I like it. It's old-school, yadda yadda. To do the opposite, to be a gun-slinging team, is to become the Patriots!

Sadly enough, we may need to become the Patriots until we can draft or buy new players for our key problems (e.g. corners, Nose Tackle, O-Line).

I have to admit, though, that even that may be too much. I have to admit that our offense could be so successful because other teams haven't had time to analyze our new OC's style. Haley seems to change his tactics based on his personnel, so our opponents haven't been able to predict him yet. By the last third of the season, our offense could unravel like our special-teams and defense.

Maybe the first option above (accepting the 3rd-year slump) is really the most plausible.