Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Who is helped by Edwards dropping out?

The body of a letter I sent to the TPM:
First some personal experience. I am an Edwards supporter; I have records back from Feb 07 that I wanted an Edwards/Obama ticket. Once he leaves, I am going to support Obama as strongly as possible. True, I'm a 35 year old married male, so that puts me square in Obama's demographic, but I am the sample group you're asking about...

Secondly, about the larger impact. I think that the older voters are going to go to Clinton (I asked around in synagogue and that's what I was hearing). The younger to Obama if they haven't already jumped ship after Edward's loss in Iowa.

Ultimately, though, I think that Obama will benefit from this becoming a two person race. I think I understand Obama's skill set (having a similar set myself although on about 1/100th a scale). It's much easier to marshal an opposition to one opponent than to two. While Obama is about a positive message, he's also effective as a contrast - especially to Hillary - and Edwards was getting in his way.

As such, I predict that Obama will be MUCH better in the upcoming debate. It's just so much easier to concentrate on one opponent.
Pic from here. Backpost finished 2009-12-18.

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