Showing posts with label Citizen John Kerry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Citizen John Kerry. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Dave Barry and Bob Graham

As you know, my man Dave Barry has stopped writing a weekly column and has spent the past few years writing children's novels of unknown worth and following his wife to sports events. But, like with Calvin & Hobbes in newspapers, the powers that be have been reprinting old Dave columns. Most I've read already but sometimes we get lucky and there's a 'new' (meaning so old that it wasn't published in any of his books) column. So it was a week ago when I was able to read a 1983 interview between Dave and then FL Gov. Bob Graham (D).

I advise reading the whole column, but suffice it to say that Graham is possibly the sharpest politician I've seen interviewed, based on his extraordinarily swift wit. Mario Cuomo struck me as sharp and funny but just read this amazing interchange, which Dave swears actually happened, and was not pre-planned:

BARRY: What can the state do about harmonica safety? I don't know if you have any idea how many Floridians die every year in harmonica accidents....

GRAHAM: Well last year we actually made some substantial improvement. In 1981, there were four people who died of harmonica accidents. Now actually, I think it's only fair to count three of them, because the fourth one was actually, I would say it was more of a swimming-pool accident. He was playing the harmonica in the swimming pool and actually jumped off the shallow end, hit his head, and we don't know whether it was the fact that he swallowed the harmonica, or the brain damage. They counted it as a harmonica accident. Now, this year, or 1982, the last year for which we have statistics, we only had two harmonica accidents. I think it was the result of the public-service ads that I did....

BARRY: The Harmonica Safety Day I think was a wonderful....

GRAHAM: ...and we built it around the theme that if you want to play Dixie, it's fine, but don't do it in front of the air- conditioning duct, because that's where we found that most of the deaths occurred. It was the vacuum that was created.

BARRY: This leads us pretty much directly to toads. I've been staying at a house in Broward County, and there are, every morning out on the patio, toads the size of mailboxes. What can we do?

Just to 'fact-check', I searched to find if there really had been a Harmonica Safety Day. Nope. Gadzooks, what a guy!

I remember when he ran for president in 2004 and now I'm even angrier that he didn't make any headway. If he had run instead of John "Choke" Kerry?! Think about it: a sharp, savvy, popular Governor and Senator from Florida who opposed the Iraq War! Grrr.

Pic from this completely unrelated site.

Monday, February 18, 2008

The Demise of Red/Blue States

The Clinton campaign has tried to explain that their steady stream of losses don't count because only blue states count. Or something.

Anyway, according to the Wiki, these states came within 5% of flipping to the other side (the chart has state, who won, by what percent):
  1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
  2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67%
  3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79%
  4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37%
  5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
  6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
  7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59%
  8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42%
  9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48%
  10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
  11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67%
The poll numbers out now are pretty spotty, but I'd say that in any of these states, if the number of people who came out to the primaries for the Democrats is larger by the necessary vote percentage over the GOP, then these states can be won by the Democrats in 2008.

Of these 11 states, 3 haven't voted yet (OH, MI, PA). Of the remaining 8, a bunch are caucuses, which still give numbers of attendees. Now this is for the real number crunchers, but there's probably a small number of votes that will magically transform red to blue.

As you can see from the accompanying pic (click to enlarge) big chunks of the country are 'purple.' So anybody who tries to sell us on an irrevocable blue/red divide, can be tarred as a liar trying to sell you spam.

Pic from here. Backpost finished 2009-11-29. Most of the text from back then. Since I did this, some others have tried to do the same analysis. Gratifyingly, I started it first.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Kerry & Clinton

The body of a letter I just wrote to Sullivan, re: Kerry's backing of Obama:

Despite being a life-long Democrat, I also shudder at Kerry's endorsement. However, it is the first step in balancing off the damaging bias of Bill Clinton. If Bill had decided to be above-the-fray then I would consider him the leader of the party, but he has decided to forgo that honor. So there are 3 people who can credibly be called the leaders of the party in descending (basically chronological) order: 1. Nancy Pelosi, 2. John Kerry, 3. Al Gore.

Pelosi is the current party head, the second in line to the Presidency (and for some reason the milestone of her female-ness hasn't been mentioned too much by the rah-rah Hillary crowd... could be because Pelosi wasn't married to a former speaker of the house?). The link to MSNBC you gave suggests that Pelosi won't endorse, but we'll see.

After her is Kerry, who, whether I like it or not, was my party's nominee four years ago. That means something. And even though the Republicans managed to create a cult of hatred around him, he's an innocuous politician with a lot of experience (who would have been a decent running mate for Obama had he not run in '04).

After that comes Gore, who you also indicate may be above it all.

But in any case, all three lead my party. Bill has decided to abdicate his leadership in favor of his wife - which I can understand as a husband - but he won't regain the title unless he does penance (e.g. campaigning STRONGLY for Obama or Edwards should they be the nominee). Bill won't do that, but hey, I need to be fair to the rules (I just made up).

Pic from here. Backpost finished 2009-12-13.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Lieberman Endorses McCain

So Lieberman did it, he endorsed McCain for 2008. One can surely wonder how a life-long Democrat, someone who won the VP as a Dem 2 terms ago, could endorse someone from the other side? Well, even if you didn't ask it, my mom did. And here was my answer:

Over the weekend I was hearing rumors that this would happen. I am not entirely surprised... Lieberman is a rare politician who actually takes things personally. McCain stayed loyal to him, they are very good buddies, and close. Don't forget, also that McCain had toyed switching to the Democrats at one point (2002 I think) and was even considering being Kerry's running mate in '04. Even though McCain is crazy conservative on some issues, he isn't on others and same thing with Joe as a liberal.

Alls said and done, McCain probably called in a chip to Lieberman and since Hillary, Dodd, Obama and Edwards all abandoned him in '06, Lieberman felt that he could allow McCain to cash that chip.

Again, the way I see it is that Lieberman - the Independent - is not supporting the party (GOP) for president but the man (McCain). And if McCain wins (which is still unlikely, but, hey, ya never know), Lieberman could very well be his running mate.

Lieberman has angered me with his intransigence on national security and constitutional issues... but considering the way the Democrats threw him under a bus in '06, I can't entirely blame him. Just slightly...

Backpost finished 2009-12-14.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Electability

The problem is not that 'electability' is hard to determine. It's that the primary voters suck at it.

John Kerry was not electable, but people I know (including family members, I'm sorry to say) were convinced that while Kerry was horrible, he'd be 'electable' because he was acceptable to Independents. The fact is that Kerry - as I've said before - was a boring, effete, waffling, liberal from Massachusetts with actually little going for him besides heroism expressed 40 years earlier. If actual independents would have been asked in early 2004 if they would elect someone boring, callow and shallow, they would have said "NO"

Yet, instead of Bill Clinton in 92 & 96, the Democrats nominate gawky, irritating nerds. Here's the key to electablity, something I wrote a while ago (from my old blog, Sept 15 2004):
A conclusion I make from this [a collection of polls], as a die-hard Democrat, is that my fellow party-voters are a collection of fumbling chuckleheads. Back in the primaries they voted not for the candidate they wanted, but for somebody they thought “Swing Voters” would vote for. In general, as an anthropologist, I am reluctant to call a group of people, a culture, idiotic. Generally, a mass of people do something that is in their best interest. Not in this case.

I said it back then, too, Kerry is a poor candidate. He has the charisma of untanned leather. He makes Gore look like P Diddy. He also has gaping gaps in his trained moral reasoning. How could he support the Iraq war? I’m not talking about flippy-flops, and despite my [initial] support for the war (see my post on 9/11/03 for nuances) – if Kerry were any fashion of real deal he would have voted against the war. The comparisons to Vietnam are clear for a sidelines observer, for someone who ostensibly based his youth on ‘Nam-opposition, he should have been the first to vote against. He didn’t. He’s a weenie.

The Democrats primaried Kerry because of what they thought someone else would want. This is stupid because of a countervailing psychological rule: when in doubt choose real over potential. Put simply, the Democrats liked Edwards, but thought a Swinger will like Kerry better. Except that Edwards had inherent and established value while Kerry had potential value. Is it any surprise that people still like Edwards and nobody – even Democrats – like Kerry?

If I had a chance to talk to the Democratic leadership (alert me next time a pig flies) I’d tell ‘em straight out – the only way a Democrat wins is with charisma. That is it. Yet the party keeps nominating these policy robots (Stevenson, Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry) as if the power of ideas will outweigh the natural human desire to look up to a leader.

Successful Democrats? All charismatic bastards. JFK, Clinton, LBJ, even Truman. A Republican doesn’t need charisma in America, despite the majority of the country’s population being democrats, the state-electoral college thang makes the states significant, and there are more Republican states. The GOP can run moral reprobates (Nixon, Bush II) and spineless crackers (Bush I) and win as long as the opposition is a standard Democrat weenie.

Both parties know these heuristics:
Evil GOP vs. Robot Dem, GOP wins
Weenie GOP vs. Robot Dem, GOP wins
Charisma, no matter whom, always wins.

1960: JFK v. Nixon – Charisma/evil
1964: LBJ v. Goldwater – Charisma
1968: Humphrey v. Nixon – evil/robot
1972: McGovern v. Nixon – evil/robot
1976: Carter v. Ford – the only exception which is manifest evil is hard to win
1980: Carter v. Reagan – doofus/Charisma
1984: Mondale v. Reagan – Charisma
1988: Dukakis v. Bush – possibly the worst election in my lifetime; gads what a waste
1992: Clinton v. Bush v. Alf – Charisma
1996: Clinton v. Dole v. Alf – Charisma
2000: Gore v. Bush v. Nader – don’t get me started on the election results

If the Democrats had only nominated any one of the candidates with charisma – this would have been no contest. E.g. if the ticket were flipped and you had Edwards as the candidate with Clark, Dean, or even Kerry as VP, then we'd be having red-terror alerts every day of the summer just for Bush to barely catch sight of the donkey's rear.
Back in 2004, I said that Kerry was annoying - just as annoying as Mondale, Dukakis, and Gore. And now we got the howler monkey in a pantsuit: Hillary.

Backpost finished 4/15/08, 1:57 PM. Why didn't I publish this at the time? The whole thing was written and just sitting there.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Barack Obama Background

This is a very important article from the blog 'Obsidian Wings' about Obama's first two years in the Senate. Upshot: Obama has been an active and bi-partisan co-sponsor of many pieces of important, but not flashy Kerrey/Kennedy-esque BIG ISSUE, legislation. Another plus in the Obama direction. The guy is starting to sound like a winner to me.

{2009 Update: pic from a 2006 speech of Obama at the OU, here.}

Sunday, November 21, 2004

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Kerry is what now?

According to the AP wire, Kerry hints White House run in his future. He's hinting that he wants to run in 2008.

I must admire the type of abject idiocy that makes someone think he can prevail in what others would think are hopeless circumstances. However, this ain't that. Didn't Kerry get the memo? He was running against the most hated man since Richard Nixon and HE STILL COULDN'T WIN! It wasn't because there weren't enough Democrats, or "swing voters" or "get out the voters" - it's because he was so profoundly unappealing as a person and 'leader' that more Americans went with the inbred frat-boy thug.

In fact, my rage over Kerry has redoubled with this rumor. How dare he?!?

{2009 Update: French Kerry pic nabbed from a lost part of the interwebs and recreated on my computer - enjoy you image-googlers.}

Friday, November 05, 2004

Still No Blogger

Blogger still isn't allowing me on - or putting up my recent posts. I'm sitting here exhausted and furious. I'm especially angry at Kerry for not coming himself with a public statement of confidence. All I see from the online NYTimes and WPost is Andrew Card and a big banner headline "Bush Confident of Victory." Kerry needs to come out strong, and he's not and I want an explanation.

Note, the "confidence" thing is all part of the Rove playbook. By playing the press into declaring him the victor, all attempts to actually count the votes are called "recounts" instead of, uh, ya know, "counts."

I've heard and read some frum Jews saying that this is God giving another victory to George W. I want to remind ya'll that this is a vote, not a lottery, and so our fate is being sealed by human action - but even then, God's invisible Hand could very well be giving Bush victory but as a punishment. That's how it feels to me.

Thursday, November 04, 2004

The New Republic: 51-48

"51-48," by the New Republic Editors
Post date: 11.04.04

This hurts. The convictions and the dreams of American liberalism have genuinely failed to carry the day; and so, for the sake of liberalism, but also for the sake of America, it is the hour for making discriminations among the varieties of despair.

There certainly are grounds for despair. In their first term, without a popular mandate, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney governed in a radically sectarian manner, in conformity with only the wishes of their hallowed base; and there is no reason to think that the popular mandate that they have now secured for a second term will provoke them to reconsider their virulence and their smallness and their indifference to the evidence of experience beyond their own. In the aftermath of this election, the president speaks about unifying the country, but he spoke that way in the aftermath of the last election, and he became the most spectacular disuniter of America in contemporary history. We must not expect the Bush administration to rise above its theology, its secrecy, its instrumental attitude toward the courts, its sympathy for the rich, its economicist approach to health care, its easy conscience about the exploitation of the environment, its belief in its own infallibility, its regular sensation of perfection. There is no sign that the Bush administration has any good idea about how to correct its course in Iraq or to put an end once and for all to Osama bin Laden; or that it regards anti-Americanism as a serious impediment to American values and American interests abroad. The Bush administration may now be expected to behave triumphally and (as the talking heads say) to move forward with its agenda. Hard times, brutish times, lie ahead.

But there is a kind of despair, a glamorous pessimism, that liberals must at all costs avoid. The cartography of the electoral college may show a continent of red with some blue lesions at the extremities; but the popular vote in the election of 2004 was 51 percent for Bush and 48 for Kerry, and those are not the numbers of a political or philosophical rout. Fifty-one to forty-eight: Those are the numbers, rather, of a conspicuously unclear and unthrilling Democratic candidate, whose advantage in money did not offset a disadvantage in authenticity. But the important point is that, all the healing pieties of the morning after notwithstanding, this is a country divided against itself about many matters of first principle. The diversity of worldviews upon which we pride ourselves is haunting us. In such a welter of fundamental differences, the work of argument and organization becomes even more necessary. American liberalism did not die on November 2. It merely lost an election.

There is honor, moreover, in a certain kind of loss. In our distracted and accelerated and gamed society, with its religion of winning, we sometimes forget this. But the many millions of Americans who believe that the tax code should be more fair; and that one of the ends of government is to bother itself about its neediest and least fortunate citizens; and that the morality of the market is not all the morality that a society requires; and that the Bible is not the basis of a democratic political order, or of our political order; and that robust stem-cell research, and science more generally, is a primary social good; and that gay marriage is a question of equality and not the beginning of the end of civilization; and that American troops must not be sent to war ignorantly or dogmatically, or without the means to win; and that the good reputation of the United States in the world is one of its most powerful historical instruments--the many millions of Americans who believe these things are not wrong. They are merely not a majority. But they are a very large minority.


This is not to say that the wounding outcome of this election should fill liberals with a sense of their own purity. Not everybody to the left of Bush is like everybody else to the left of Bush; and it would be catastrophic for the Democratic Party to wallow now in the sort of Michael Moore leftishness that made many Americans worry whether John Kerry was sufficiently obsessed with American security, and sufficiently excited about American power, to protect them at home and to promote their purposes abroad. (On the question of American power, the American people are right and Ted Kennedy is wrong.) An internecine quarrel must now begin. But it cannot begin where there is only alienation, and the self-fulfilling confusion of the Bush administration with the United States of America. This country is bigger than its every president. This Constitution is not easy to destroy. This is not the apocalypse. But it is the most formidable challenge to American liberalism in our time.

{2009 Update, all the Epic Fail pictures from all over the interwebs}

Why the election results are devastating

It's not because "my man lost" - as you know, I did not like Kerry and thought the Democratic Party base that chose him in the primaries were dead wrong. It's because I believe - and have mountains of fact to back me up - that Bush and his cronies have been deceiving the public and the world in the worst way. And I felt that after the election of Kerry the truth would finally come out; that the frightened and muted Press would finally open their mouths and report what they already know and have been hiding.

And then a sizable majority of America would see that Bush was not what he claimed to be. That this government is *not* what America wants.

I still believe that. I believe America was robbed. And maybe now the Press will realize that they have been complicit in this agony and will start doing their jobs.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Worth Seeing

From Michelle Cottle in The New Republic online:
"Early indications are that this election laid to waste a couple of fundamental pieces of the conventional wisdom that we all heard in the closing days of the race: one, that high voter turnout benefits Democrats; and two, that undecided voters tend to break in favor of the non-incumbent. Figuring out how these two tidbits turned out to be so wrong will give the hard-core electoral handicappers something to obsess about for the next several weeks.

Meanwhile, the rest of us might want to turn our attentions to a more basic question: What the hell happened with the exit polls? I understand that these samplings are always less-than-spot-on. But come on, people, these babies were so wrong last night that Bush backers looked ready to kill themselves--and each other. (And as a result, I have more than a few dear friends, not to mention a husband, now finding it very hard to cope with their dashed hopes.)"
To be honest, the numbers are waaaay off. And, as my brother points out, www.electoral-vote.com says
"One thing that is very strange is how much the exit polls differed from the final results, especially in Ohio. Remember that Ohio uses Diebold voting machines in many areas. These machines have no paper trail. Early in the campaign, Diebold CEO Walden O'Dell, a GOP fundraiser, promised to deliver Ohio to Bush. He later regretted having said that."
Kerry conceded for *what* reason?

Finally Back Up

We needed to run out and do some imperative errands so I missed all the speeches. I've been feeling like the world has crashed down and I can see only these conclusions:

1. The only silver lining is that if the vote is determined to be accurate then Bush has the majority of the popular vote - making his brand of feckless evil more palatable knowing that the American people actually asked for it. What made the past four years unbearable was knowing that he had ripped us of in 2000. Now we truly get what we deserve

2. Kerry has proven himself to be a coward and a loser. Gore had an excuse to give up - because who knew the extent of the thievery and lies of his opponents. Kerry knew that and he still gave up the ghost.

3. I hope Edwards will still take up the fight - maybe he'll spearhead the legal effort to ensure every vote has been counted (even in the precincts of Florida and Ohio where the computer polls left no paper trail)

4. Now that we're facing 4 years of W, I don't see McCain being possible in 2008. The GOP will make it a rule that whomever runs for president must use Rove - and McCain seems to have too much integrity to do that. Giuliani doesn't so maybe we'll see him, but I think with W as strong as he's been made, we'll see Jeb in '08.

5. I'm very afraid that the democrats will learn the wrong lesson and shift to the left (and thus Hillary in '08). The lesson was to get a Southern democrat with charm and a popular message - i.e. Edwards.

More as soon as I catch my breath and stop hyperventilating from fear.

The Posts From This Morning

Blogger was worthless; it went down so thoroughly this morning (doubtless from the overload of amateur pundits like yours truly) that all my emailed posts were eaten. Here's the extent of this morning's turmoil:

Wednesday, November 03, 2004 8:44 AM
Blogger Overtaxed
Blogger is overtaxed so I post from the site so I'm doing this by email

Wednesday, November 03, 2004 8:49 AM
Devil's Due
I will give the devil, Karl Rove, his due. He managed to beat the 50% incumbent rule. My predictions were based on that; that undecideds break against the incumbent but by hook or by crook (a phrase which takes on an ominous meaning in Rove's context) he managed it. Even if Kerry is declared the winner in Ohio - and thus POTUS 44 - Rove's career is not over. He managed to pull a miracle, or whatever the diabolical equivalent of miracle is called.

This morning after services I gave a current state of the Electoral College (Bush 254, Kerry 252) and said that you can look at the returns as an optimist or pessimist. A pessimist says that nobody won while the optimist says both people won - so everyone is happy! I did encourage everyone to take the next few days as a vacation from actually having a president since nobody seems to like either one of these guys.

Naturally, I expect Kerry to be successful in Ohio - because the numbers of voters who were cheated came from the Democratic areas. Don't be fooled by the GOP Lying Machine - the fraud will be uncovered.

And if they manage to steal this one too, then this will be a very dark time.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004 9:53 AM
Still No Blogger
Blogger still isn't allowing me on - or putting up my recent posts. I'm sitting here exhausted and furious. I'm especially angry at Kerry for not coming himself with a public statement of confidence. All I see from the online NYTimes and WPost is Andrew Card and a big banner headline "Bush Confident of Victory." Kerry needs to come out strong, and he's not and I want an explanation.

Note, the "confidence" thing is all part of the Rove playbook. By playing the press into declaring him the victor, all attempts to actually count the votes are called "recounts" instead of, uh, ya know, "counts."

I've heard and read some frum Jews saying that this is God giving another victory to George W. I want to remind ya'll that this is a vote, not a lottery, and so our fate is being sealed by human action - but even then, God's invisible Hand could very well be giving Bush victory but as a punishment. That's how it feels to me.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004 12:03 PM
Disaster
Kerry conceded.

I don't know what happened; all the polls were off-base, all the information I had was wrong; I guess my fundamental optimism that people would make the right choice was foolhardy. I feel as if a great worldwide tragedy has occurred. It's like 9/11 - but instead of seeing the mass murder, I have the nightmares of all that this criminal government can perpetrate.

The only good thing about Kerry was his competitive spirit, that he would fight and fight and fight and he just *poof* gave up. I am sick, scared, and devastated. God help us.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004 12:38 PM
Edwards
According to the AP, Edwards was fighting Kerry to stay alive... to put off concession until the votes were counted. Again and again, it's so clear, Edwards should have been the candidate. My frustration valves have burst, I'm too exhausted to even fight, please let me wake up and let this be a long long nightmare.

Eating Posts

The portable computer was way to unreliable; it ate too many posts. I've moved back upstairs to read the returns. Even though I decided to watch the returns on NBC, I was flipping channels constantly to get as much real info I could. I got stuck on CBS - who did have the best coverage - despite my hatred of Dan Rather. The doofus was spouting these goofy sayings all night; but CBS also had the best logo (little animated elephants and donkeys).

Personally, despite the current returns, I don't believe the numbers from Florida are accurate. Considering the voter-intimidation all around the country, I don't think we've finished with this race yet. Ohio is still likely for Kerry and when he gets his 270, maybe the GOP thieves will stop fighting and let the real vote occur.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Education Gap

The Democracy Corps has an analysis of their recent survey that brings forward some startling facts. What they call "The Tale of Two Gaps"

The gender gap between Democrats and Republicans is a known factor. But in 2004 - as opposed to 2000 - we now see a clear gap in education.

The key chart:
________________2000 Gore, Bush___________2004 Kerry, Bush

Male________________42____54________________46________49
Female______________54____43________________52________45

Non-College_________48____48________________48________50
College_____________47____49________________52________44

These numbers are frightening, especially for you college-educated Republicans. Basically, as I've said before, the only ones voting GOP tomorrow are those who are irretrievably partisan or utterly uninformed.

If for whatever reason, Bush manages to steal 2004 like he stole 2000, then those of you who are GOP loyalists have a responsibility to tell your grinning idiot man-child in Chief that he needs to clean house. I don't think we in the losing party will have a voice if Bush wins (and who knows when we will again!). Please, for the love of all that's good, tell him that he needs to fire Rumsfeld immediately, retire Ashcroft, put Cheney in the old ogre's home. Please.

And if Bush doesn't win, then I want to buy tickets to the many many trials. If Rumsfeld doesn't get arrested for Abu Ghraib, we're still in trouble.

Vote Predicting - Broken Post

I originally tried to post this on October 28th, but the Blogger messed me up. Honest.

If I try to predict the Oscars, why not the Election of the Century. I'll take another time to add to the hysteria of the critical nature of this election (maybe not, people already feel it). The heilige Electoral-Vote.com has been invaluable and you can use that data to make your own Sundae (Tuesdae?) at the New York Times site - click on "Presidential Calculator."

My prediction is based on the idea that any state which is polling at less than 50% (and that was for Oct 28, it's even easier to see now) for Bush is going to go to Kerry.

That means:

Bush: ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AZ, UT, AK (51), LA, IN, KY, TN, AL, GA, SC, NC (Bush 53), VA (Bush 51), WV (Bush 51), MS (Bush 51)

Kerry: MO (Bush has 49), ME, NH (B=47), NY, MA, CT, RI, VT, NH, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA (B=46), OH (B=46), FL (B=47), MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, HI, WA, OR, CA, and NV (Bush is 50), CO (Bush 48), NM (Bush 49)

That means Bush 202, Kerry 336

And depending on how the get out the vote efforts work (and the GOP dirty tricks), the historical trend of incumbents losing 2-3 points on election night may mean that Bush could lose VA, WV, MS, and even NC making a plausible total of 163 to 375.

If my numbers don't match up to the media - who say incessantly that it's a tight race - it's because they are harlots who feign authenticity to sell their product: a horse race is more compelling than a rout.

If this is an honest election, Bush will be back home crying to mommy (and shredding every piece of paper he can find) before long.

{2009 Update: added the picture; and I'm stunned by the hubris of this}

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Red Sox Wins

The Red Sox have won the World Series over the hated Cardinals (they're all commies, if you ask me).

I hate the Cardinals, not for the religious reasons you might think but because during the brief 5 year period that I actually watched and enjoyed baseball - 1984 thru 1988 - I was a strong (nominal) Met fan. And in my rudimentary, Homo floresiensis baseball brain, the team I identified as the Met's greatest rival was the Cardinals. Maybe some baseball historian can back me up here; I just hated them. And I was so frustrated when they went to the Series instead of Houston; not only because I wanted a Texas-Massachusetts warmup, but because I knew the Red Sox would lose and that meant the hated Cardinals would win!

Oops. Curse or not, the Sox on on top (of pop?) with a fox, eating green eggs and beer on a box.

Also, Arafat is doing worse and the projected final results - given the recent polls - is Kerry 288, Bush 250.

Remember the 13th of Cheshvan!

Sunday, October 24, 2004

The TNR Endorsement of Kerry

I was told the link to the New Republic didn't work, so here is their endorsement reprinted without permission through the magic of cut-and-paste

Kerry for President
by the Editors
Post date: 10.21.04, Issue date: 11.01.04

There was a time, in the aftermath of September 11, when this magazine liked what it heard from George W. Bush. He said America was at war--not merely with an organization, but with a totalitarian ideology. And he pledged to defeat Islamist totalitarianism the same way we defeated European totalitarianism, by spreading democracy. For a publication that has long believed in the marriage of liberalism and American power, this was the right analysis. And its correctness mattered more than the limitations of the man from which it came.

Three years later, it has become tragically clear that the two cannot be separated. The president's war on terrorism, which initially offered a striking contrast to his special interest-driven domestic agenda, has come to resemble it. The common thread is ideological certainty untroubled by empirical evidence, intellectual curiosity, or open debate. The ideology that guides this president's war on terrorism is more appealing than the corporate cronyism that guides his domestic policy. But it has been pursued with the same sectarian, thuggish, and ultimately self-defeating spirit. You cannot lead the world without listening to it. You cannot make the Middle East more democratic while making it more anti-American. You cannot make the United States more secure while using security as a partisan weapon. And you cannot demand accountable government abroad while undermining it at home.

And so a president who promised to make America safer by making the Muslim world more free has failed on both counts. This magazine has had its differences with John Kerry during his career and during this campaign. But he would be a far better president than George W. Bush.

On domestic policy, Bush has been Newt Gingrich without the candor. Like Gingrich, he envisions stripping away many of the welfare-state protections that shield economically vulnerable Americans from the vagaries of the free market (while insulating corporations ever more from those same forces). But, rather than explicitly opposing popular government programs, as Gingrich did, Bush has pursued a more duplicitous strategy: He is eviscerating the government's ability to pay for them. His tax cuts, while sold as short-term measures to revive the economy, actually represent long-term assaults on the progressive tax code. If allowed to fully take effect, they will substantially shift the tax burden from unearned wealth to income, dramatically increasing inequality. And they will produce what Bush's former Treasury secretary, Paul O'Neill, has privately called a "fiscal crisis"--a collapse in government revenue just as the baby-boom retirement sends Medicare and Social Security costs skyrocketing. This crisis will sap America's ability to wage the war on terrorism--since government will lack the funds to adequately safeguard homeland security or expand the military. It will create enormous pressure to eviscerate the government protections that guarantee poor and middle-class Americans even the meager economic security they enjoy today. And it will be entirely by design.

The tax cuts are typical of a president who cloaks a relentlessly ideological domestic agenda in moderate, problem-solving language--and gets away with it by distorting the facts. In 2001, Bush presented his policy on stem cells as a pragmatic compromise--in which research on preexisting stem-cell lines would be funded but research on new ones would not. But the supposed compromise was based on a falsehood. Bush vastly exaggerated the number of viable preexisting stem-cell lines, thus pretending he was facilitating the medical research most Americans support while actually crippling it in obeisance to his conservative Christian base.

On prescription drugs, the story is similar. With elderly Americans demanding that the government cover their prescription-drug costs, Bush endorsed a bill that administered such coverage not through Medicare but through the private sector in which his administration harbors a near-theological faith. Since private insurers had to be lured into the market with large subsidies, Bush's plan offered less coverage, at greater cost, than it would have under Medicare. But, when Medicare's chief actuary tried to estimate the bill's true cost, his superiors threatened to fire him. Only after the legislation passed did the Bush administration admit that it would cost $134 billion more than it had previously acknowledged.

By contrast, John Kerry has a record of fiscal honesty and responsibility that continues the tradition of Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin. Unlike most Democrats, he supported the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings deficit-reduction plan. Unlike most Republicans, he supported Clinton's 1993 deficit-reduction package. And, unlike President Bush, he supports the "pay as you go" rules that, in the 1990s, helped produce a budget surplus.

It is true that, in this campaign, Kerry has proposed more spending than his partial repeal of the Bush tax cut will fund. But he has also said that, if the repeal does not bring in enough revenue, he will scale back his proposals. In fact, one of the virtues of Kerry's health plan is that, unlike Clinton's, it can easily be broken down into modest reforms. Even if Kerry merely makes good on his pledge to dramatically expand Medicaid and schip, programs that offer health coverage to poor children and adults, he will have done more to help struggling Americans than Bush has in his four years.

On foreign policy, Kerry's record is less impressive. His vote against the 1991 Gulf war suggested a tendency to see all American military action through the distorting prism of Vietnam. And his behavior in the current Iraq debate has not been exemplary. To be fair, his position has been more consistent than his detractors give him credit for. Republicans mock him for "voting for the war" before opposing it. But Bush himself urged congressional authorization for war as a way to force U.N. inspectors back into Iraq and to disarm Saddam Hussein peacefully. It was reasonable to believe that only a credible U.S. threat of force would produce an intrusive new inspections regime (which it did). And Kerry is right that, if Bush had allowed those inspections to continue, they would have eventually revealed that Saddam lacked weapons of mass destruction and eviscerated the rationale for war.

Kerry's greater failure was his vote against the $87 billion supplemental to equip American troops and rebuild Iraq. He was right to support funding the supplemental by repealing part of the tax cut (particularly since Bush officials like Paul Wolfowitz had shamelessly suggested that the war would cost America virtually nothing). But, once that effort failed, he should have supported the legislation anyway, as Senator Joseph Biden did. Building "firehouses in Baghdad"--a notion Kerry has repeatedly mocked--is not only something we owe the Iraqi people, it stems from the fundamentally liberal premise that social development can help defeat fanaticism. Abandoning that principle under pressure from Howard Dean is the most disturbing thing Kerry has done in this campaign.

But Kerry's critics are wrong to cite his opposition to the Gulf war--and his criticism of the current Iraq war--as evidence of his supposed reluctance to forcefully wage the war on terrorism. It is conceivable that, in the coming years, the United States might need to launch military action against another Muslim regime (though, given how greatly Bush has overextended the military, it is hard to see how we would do so). But the war on terrorism is far more likely to require military action within states, to secure lawless areas that terrorists have exploited.

The Bush administration's misguided tendency to see Al Qaeda as the instrument of rogue governments made it more willing to use force against Iraq but less willing to use force in Afghanistan after the Taliban fell. Kerry, by contrast, seems inclined to use American power where it could genuinely damage Al Qaeda. Even during the Democratic primaries, he attacked the Bush administration for not sending U.S. troops into Tora Bora to destroy Al Qaeda and Taliban remnants in the waning days of the Afghan war. He has proposed doubling U.S. Special Forces for operations just like that. And he has proposed strengthening America's capacity to act--including even militarily--to prevent nuclear proliferation, an issue on which the Bush administration has proved astonishingly passive.

Kerry's apparent willingness to act within states is particularly important because the U.N.'s obsession with sovereignty renders it impotent in such circumstances. His support for the Kosovo war, waged without U.N. approval, is encouraging in this regard, as is his openness to using U.S. troops--presumably without the Security Council's blessing--in Darfur, Sudan. These encouraging signs counterbalance his worrying tendency to describe multilateralism--and U.N. support--as an end in itself rather than instrument of American power. If elected, this tension will likely be a theme of his presidency, as it was of Clinton's.

Critics also call Kerry a narrow realist uninterested in battling Al Qaeda in the realm of ideas. But he has suggested an ambitious effort to support democratic civil society in the Muslim world. And, while we don't know whether Kerry would actually carry out such a campaign, we know that Bush--for all his grand rhetoric--has not. The administration's Greater Middle East Initiative, supposedly its signature effort to promote democracy in the Muslim world, was gutted after protests from the very autocracies President Bush pledged to reform. And, while the Iraq war was supposed to inspire liberals throughout the region, it may be doing the opposite. Anti-Americanism has reached such toxic levels that dissidents in Muslim countries seem increasingly fearful of any association with the United States. This is the bitter fruit of an occupation conducted with such shocking arrogance and carelessness that it calls into question whether the Bush administration's pledge to turn Iraq into a model democracy was ever really sincere.

But the war against Islamist totalitarianism is not merely a struggle for Muslim minds; it is a struggle for American ones as well. In the weeks after September 11, Bush presided over a country more united--with more faith in its government--than at any other time in recent memory. He has squandered that unity and trust for the cheapest of reasons. His administration has used the war on terrorism as a bludgeon against congressional Democrats and has implied that its critics are aiding the enemy. And it has repeatedly misled the public--touting supposed evidence of Iraq's nuclear program that American intelligence analysts knew was highly dubious, rebuking General Eric Shinseki for telling the truth about how many troops it would take to occupy Iraq successfully, and firing Lawrence Lindsey for saying how much it would cost.

The result is a country bitterly divided, distrustful of its government, and weaker as a result. The next time an American president tries to use force in the war on terrorism, he will not merely lack the world's trust, he will lack much of the American people's as well. That may be Bush's most damning legacy of all. He has failed the challenge of these momentous times. John Kerry deserves a chance to do better.