Contra-Wilder Effect

From a letter I sent to the Reality Based Community Folks, in response to this point by Steven Teles.

I don’t buy the idea that Obama lost due to the “Wilder effect” (that voters told pollsters that they’d vote for a black candidate, but secretly voted for white candidates in the secrecy of the polling booth). The main reason is that there’s a plausible alternative hypothesis, which is that the large Obama lead in the polls sent independents into the Republican primary to vote for McCain. But we’ll have to take a look at the data tomorrow, when we’ll have fine-grained information.

One thing about the 'wilder/bradley-effect' that I haven't seen mentioned is why would racist voters choose Clinton over Edwards? Are pollsters and pundits suggesting that people will lie about voting for a black man and then choose a white woman when there's a perfectly acceptable (17% thought so) white man as a choice?

Backpost finished 2009-12-13.