Senate Predictions

If I attempt to predict the Oscars, which are meaningless, then I have to at least try the Senate. Even though it kills me... but as my brother and I often say, if the Israelites could believe 10 idiots over Moshe Rabbeinu when it came to the sin of the spies, so people can trust George Dick & Donald.

The data I use to determine the predictions - for the 14 top close races - comes from the average of the major polls as tabulated by RealClearPolitics.

My basic rule of thumb, based on 2004, is that if a Democrat is under 50% in the average polls, he will lose. The Republican machine has been shown to be super efficient at bridging the gap.

Bold = my predicted winner. *=incumbent.

Arizona = Kyl (R)* 49.3% vs. Pederson (D) 40.7%
Connecticut = Lieberman (I) 49.8% vs. Lamont (D) 38.0%
Maryland = Steele (R) 45.0% vs. Cardin (D) 48.7%
Michigan = Bouchard (R) 37.8% vs. Stabenow (D)* 52.3%
Minnesota = Kennedy (R) 37.7% vs. Klobuchar (D) 53.0%
Missouri = Talent (R)* 45.3% vs. McCaskill (D) 48.5%
Montana = Burns (R)* 45.5% vs. Tester (D) 48.5%
New Jersey = Kean (R) 41.8% vs. Menendez (D)* 48.2%
Ohio = DeWine (R)* 43.3% vs. Brown (D) 53.3%
Pennsylvania = Santorum (R)* 40.8% vs. Casey (D) 52.3%
Rhode Island = Chafee (R) 43.3% vs. Whitehouse (D) 48.7%
Tennessee = Corker (R) 50.3% vs. Ford (D) 44.3%
Virginia = Allen (R)* 46.8% vs. Webb (D) 48.3%
Washington = McGavick (R) 40.5% vs. Cantwell (D)* 53.8%

TOTALS
8 wins for Republicans (AZ, MD, MO, MT, NJ, RI, TN, VA)
6 wins for Democrats (CT, MI, MN, OH, PA, WA)

Republicans will take Democratic seats from NJ and MD. Democrats will take Republican seats in OH and PA.