Saturday, November 01, 2008

Some Predictions, Part 1: Electoral Count

Just a few days to go and the prognosticatingly inclined are making predictions of election day and beyond. I am no different. For example, the heilige folks at 538, their roving photographer (Brett Marty) for one, is getting into the act. Here are two of his ten predictions that I find plausible:
  • EV: Obama 396 -- Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, FL, OH, MO, NC, IN, MT, ND, GA. The state Obama will win by the smallest margin will be Georgia, the closest state he'll lose will be West Virginia.
  • We'll know the election is over when the nets call Virginia for Obama at 8:40pm EST.
  • I don't know if his EV (Electoral Vote) numbers are what my predictions will be, but it's close. I especially like his point that if Virginia goes to Obama then it's all over.

    Back in June, I made some meaningless predictions of the possible EV map. To summarize, I claimed two scenarios, one was low-ball, the other high-ball. At this point the lowball (Obama 320, McCain 218) seems too low and we're closer to the high ball (Obama 387, McCain 151), as you can see from this map:
    What I would change from that is that it seems unlikely for Obama to carry Georgia (15), or the single EV in Nebraska, or South Dakota; I'd keep Missouri, North Carolina, and North Dakota, and add Indiana. Giving us this map (Obama 378, McCain 160):

    The highest possible number (and these are some other tools beside 538 to use: and the RCP do-it-yourself map) is to take any state that McCain is leading by under 5 points and push that to Obama. That adds Montana and brings back Georgia. Note, as of today, Arizona is only McCain's by 6-7 pts. Whoa. But that high-water mark is Obama 396, McCain 142:

    A note on vote suppression and fraud. There have been numerous attempts by the GOP to suppress the vote but unlike in 2000-2006, they've been thwarted numerous times (see here from TPM for an example). One of the greatest tools against suppression, as noted by a NYT editorial, is early voting. This is a wonderful addition to our democracy that finally makes it possible for a more fair vote. Naturally, the Republicans are against it. Why? Because it rewards traditionally Democratic constituencies (people who work for a living on Tuesdays) and doesn't help Goopers (rich people). Barf.

    As I've said numerous times, the reason why 2004 didn't make sense as an election - and a main reason I got my prediction wrong - was because of the massive fraud perpetrated by the GOP. Ain't gonna work this year (and as 2006 showed, the nation was eager to punish the GOP, and did so despite the suppression). 2008 will be more honest than anything we've had, nationally, since 1998.

    No comments: