The stats are, Obama at 273, McCain 265. GOP gets Florida, Michigan, Virginia according to current polls and Ohio is a dead 50/50 heat.
I have developed two maps showing what I think will happen in November. Scenario is the best I can hope for if current trends continue. By this I mean that given Obama's strengths as a campaigner, and given the unobstructed field (no more Hillary), I believe Obama will be able to pick up these states: MI, VA, NV, OH, MO, and 1 seat in Nebraska (it doesn't go winner-take-all). I'm also wagering that heavy campaigning in Florida will bring it to the fold, but that's the biggest toss-up I see in November, given current trends.
Scenario 1 Total: Obama 320, McCain 218
Scenario 2 is what *could* happen if the Democratic party gets it's act together and McCain is as terrible in November now as he was Tuesday night. Also this scenario projects maximum damage from Bob Barr's Libertarian campaign which may pick up protest votes in the deep South from people who hate McCain as much as they do Obama. Ron Paul doesn't seem to be mounting a third party run, but if he did, that would just go into the Barr spoiler camp.
The pickups in Scenario 2 are GA & NC from the Barr nonsense, North & South Dakota and New Hampshire from Barr and GOP implosion. The final tallies are:
Scenario 2 Total:Obama 387, McCain 151
Note, if the Republicans had run Romney and/or if the Democrats had run an Edwards-Obama ticket like I expected, it would have been possible that we would have had a massive landslide, possibly picking up Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, and others in the South. Ah well.
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