Tuesday, November 04, 2008


Click on the map, print it out, and use for 'scoring' tonight!

My predictions here are based on the following categories:
  1. (8) Solid Blue: CA, HI, IL, DE, DC, NY, VT, MA (132)
  2. (5) Very Blue: MD, NJ, CT, ME, RI (39)
  3. (5) Recently Blue: WA, OR, MN, WI, MI (55)
  4. (3) Big Swing: PA, OH, FL (68)
  5. (4) Small Swing: NM, NH, IA, NV (21)
  6. (3) Recently Swing: CO, MO, VA (35)
  7. (5) Swing only in 2008: MT, ND, IN, NC, GA (47)
  8. (4) Clinton Republican: WV, AR, LA, TN, KY (39)
  9. (5) Solid South: TX, SC, AL, MS, (57)
  10. (9) Solid Red: ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, AK (46)
Legend:# before the title = how many states in the bloc, # after the title = electoral count for the bloc. The list is in descending order, more likely to go Obama to least likely. It'll be odd to see the 'redder' category states going to Obama before the 'bluer.' The prediction variation I had earlier is based on recent polling that show the 'recently' swinging actually being a possibility.

The "Clinton Republican" category was originally called "the Racist Democrat" category... these are states that went for Clinton in 1992 or 1996 but are blood red today. The "Solid Red" used to be called "Libertarian or Christian States," for obvious reasons.

In 2012, when Obama runs for re-election, the deeper red categories may actually be in play. But first, lets see what happens tonight!

Update:Here's another good 'scorecard' from 538:

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