Smart Guy Alert

This blog is very good: Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics' Horserace Blog. And by 'good' I mean 'he thinks like I do'

The above link is an example of what I like. His main point in that post is that despite the blog's unfortunate title, the primaries are not a horse-race to the general voter. The voters only start paying attention very close to the actual election. The pundits and political junkies (like me) think that voters are paying attention like we do. Note, they don't.

What this means, in short, is that early polls are not worth much. Candidates - like Obama and Giuliani - who wait for the month before Iowa/New Hampshire to start spending mucho dinero and to levy their best attacks are being very smart.

He also gives some good info about the effects of Negative Campaigning (something I've wondered about for a while).