Primaries 2004

Naturally, I am following the Primaries with an avid eye. Now that my favorite candidate has dropped out (Lieberman) and the fantasy-candidate fizzled out (Clark) and the Scary Wacko Dude has left (Dean) we are left with two viable candidates, Kerrey and Edwards.

Note, I am not considering Sharpton and Kucinich. Kucinich is in this to make his voice heard while Sharpton is trying to recast himself as a respectable power-broker. Sharpton is a long-term danger; Kucinich is a statistical inevitability.

Anyhoo, Kerrey and Edwards. According to the current political analysts, primaries have a fascinating echo effect. A candidate is given high numbers in the polls based largely on the quality of "electability." This is especially so in this current election where the Democrats are so angry at the Bush regime that all they want is to replace him. As such, the voters are trying to gauge not how they feel about the candidate but how they perceive *everyone else* feels about the candidates.

Therefore, if a candidate does well in an earlier primary, then he'll seem electable and be given higher numbers in the next primary, and so on. Dean was considered the front-runner before the primaries because he was popular. But, his popularity was only in young long-haired freaky-people and wild-eyed yelpers. Kerrey was able to establish his credentials, by his age and (overwhelmingly so) on his war record.

Given all this analysis, it would seem that any presidential candidate needs to put all of their resources in Iowa. Clark and Lieberman forwent (forgoed?) Iowa and they were quickly eliminated.

Because Wisconsin showed that Edwards has legs, he will actually do a lot better in subsequent primaries. Which is good. Kerrey will be eaten alive by Bush & Rove. His wishy-washy, pandering, sleepy Northern liberalism (even the most moderate of Democrats becomes a Liberal in Massachusetts) will be unelectable in November.

Edwards, who is young, Southern and hired straight from central casting will, I believe, be a better candidate. His main downsides are his age and his former profession.

Let's see how this goes.