Best Actor Analysis

In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):

• British Film Awards (BFA) = 6/3
• BFC - Broadcast Film Critics; = 3/3
• BSFC - Boston Film Critics; = 5/4
• CFC - Chicago Film Critics; = 5/3
• GG - Golden Globe Awards; = 11/5
• KCFC - Kansas City Film Critics; = 8/2
• LAF - Los Angeles Film Critics; = 8/3
• LVFC - Las Vegas Film Critics; = 2/2
• NBR - National Board of Review; = 6/3
• NSFC - National Society of Film Critics; = 4/2
• NYF - New York Film Critics; = 5/2
• SAG - Screen Actors Guild Awards; = 6*
• SanF - San Francisco Film Critics Awards; = 2
• SDFC - San Diego Film Critics; = 3

Notes: Here the GG's advantage (2 choices) still didn't help it. Even with double the chances, they missed in 1985, 1986, 1989, 1991, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002.

The Screen Actors Guild looked very strong (it started giving best actor awards only since 1994) but they have missed in the past 3 years (2000, 2001, 2002)!

• In 2000, BFC & SDFC were correct.
• In 2001, BSFC, KCFC, LAF were correct.
• In 2002, BSFC, NSFC were correct.

The Boston Film Critics (BSFC) were on the money in the past two years. Which, alas, seems completely arbitrary.

This year the statistics are:

• BFC, CO, DFW, FFC, GG, GS, KCFC, LVFC, NBR, VFC - Sean Penn - Mystic River
• FFC, GS, LVFC, NBR - Sean Penn - 21 Grams
• BFA, BSFC, CFC, GG, GS, IND, IWA, LAF, NYF, NSFC, NYOC, OFC, SanF, SEA, SFC, TFC, WDC - Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
• SDFC - Chiewetel Ejiofor - Dirty Pretty Things
• PFC, PP - Ben Kingsley - House of Sand and Fog
• SAG - Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

GG & SAG are unreliable and split. The BSFC, for whatever reason, has had a good run, and by coinciding with the GG, they give weight to Bill Murray.

Acting awards are generally given for a number of years of good work. According to the Academy Award database, Sean's stats are 3 nominations, no wins:

• 1995 - BEST ACTOR - Dead Man Walking
• 1999 - BEST ACTOR - Sweet and Lowdown
• 2001 - BEST ACTOR - I Am Sam

He also took a vocal political stance before the Iraq War and that could factor in the voting.

Bill, a.k.a. "My Man Bill," has never been nominated for a role despite years of extraordinary work; recently his work in "Rushmore" (1998) and "The Royal Tennenbaums" received acclaim; he was robbed for his role in "Tootsie" and it's the 20th Anniversary of "Ghostbusters" for gosh's sakes!

Given the balance, I will go with Bill.