Best Director Analysis

In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):

• British Film Awards (BFA) = 0/2
• BSFC - Boston Film Critics; = 3/1
• DGA - Directors Guild o'America = 16/7
• GG - Golden Globe Awards; = 12/6
• KCFC - Kansas City Film Critics; = 9/5
• LAF - Los Angeles Film Critics; = 5/3
• NBR - National Board of Review; = 4/1
• NYF - New York Film Critics; = 2/1

Notes:

GG missed in 1985, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001, 2002 (missed the past 3 years)

DGA missed in: 1983, 1985, 1988, 1991, 2000, 2002 (missed twice in past 3 years).

And, in 2000, SAG & GG agreed, incorrectly, for Ang Lee over Soderburgh (which I predicted). Both got it wrong in 2002, a bad predicted year.

This year's statistics are:

• NBR - Edward Zwick - The Last Samurai
• BSFC, IND, NYF, NYOC, SEA - Sophia Coppola - Lost in Translation
• BFC, CFC, CO, DFW, DGA, FFC, GG, IWA, KCFC, LAF, LVFC, OFC,
• PFC, PP, SanF, SDFC, SFC, TFC, VFC, WDC - Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• NSFC - Clint Eastwood - Mystic River
• BFA - Peter Weir - Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

The overwhelming numbers are for Jackson, and since he is also slated to get the Best Picture, and since its rare to split the two (in happened, in recent days, in 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2002), I will go with Jackson on this.