Best Actress Analysis

In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):

• British Film Awards (BFA) = 5/3
• BSFC - Boston Film Critics; = 3/2
• CFC - Chicago Film Critics; = 5/3
• GG - Golden Globe Awards; = 16/7
• KCFC - Kansas City Film Critics; = 7/3
• LAF - Los Angeles Film Critics; = 6/4
• LVFC - Las Vegas Film Critics; = 2/2
• NBR - National Board of Review; = 7/4
• NSFC - National Society of Film Critics; = 2/1
• NYF - New York Film Critics; = 5/2
• SAG - Screen Actors Guild Awards; = 6*
• SanF - San Francisco Film Critics Awards; = 3/2
• SDFC - San Diego Film Critics; = 2/2

Notes: The GG's are more helpful for Best Actress than actor. Still, they missed in 1985, 1995, 1996, and 2001.

The Screen Actors Guild is still strong but they missed in 1994, 1999, and 2002.

This year the statistics are:

• BFA, BSFC - Scarlett Johansson - Lost in Translation
• GG, GS, IWA, NBR - Diane Keaton - Something's Gotta Give
• BFC, CFC, CO, DFW, GG, GS, IND, LVFC, NSFC, NYOC, SAG, SanF, VFC - Charlize Theron - Monster
• NYF, SEA - Hope Davis - American Splendor
• NYF - Hope Davis - The Secret Lives of Dentists
• FFC, LAF, OFC, PFC, SDFC, SFC, WDC - Naomi Watts - 21 Grams
• TFC - Samantha Morton - Morvern Callar
• KCFC - Jennifer Connelly - House of Sand and Fog

Whenever SAG and GG agree (on Actress), they are also correct for the Academy. This goes to Theron.