Best Supporting Actress Analysis

In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):

• British Film Awards (BFA) = 5/4
• BSFC - Boston Film Critics; = 4/0
• GG - Golden Globe Awards; = 9/5
• KCFC - Kansas City Film Critics; = 8/3
• LAF - Los Angeles Film Critics; = 7/2
• NBR - National Board of Review; = 4/0
• NSFC - National Society of Film Critics; = 4/2
• NYF - New York Film Critics; = 6/3
• SAG - Screen Actors Guild Awards; = 4*

Notes: Double yeuuuch.

GG missed in 1983, 85, 86, 88, 89, 92, 93, 96, 98, 2000, 2002
SAG (since 1994) missed in: 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001.
And, in 1996, SAG & GG agreed, incorrectly, for Lauren Bacall over Juliette Binoche.

I'm going to go again with the idea that whenever GG & SAG agree, that will mean a lot, even with the difficult categories of the supporting awards.

Now, the nominees are:

• Shohreh Aghdashloo for House of Sand and Fog
• Patricia Clarkson for Pieces of April
• Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River
• Holly Hunter for Thirteen
• Renée Zellweger for Cold Mountain

This year's statistics are:

• BSFC, CFC, FFC, GS, NBR, NSFC, PFC, SanF, VFC - Patricia Clarkson - Pieces of April
• BSFC, FFC, KCFC, NBR, NSFC - Patricia Clarkson - The Station Agent
• NYOC - Scarlett Johanson - Lost in Translation
• IND, LAF, NYF, OFC - Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog
• BFA, BFC, DFW, GG, SAG, SDFC, SFC - Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Note, that for two nominees (Harden & Hunter) no-one else has given them anything. Note, also, that Clarkson has been given awards by agencies recognizing that she has done very good work in two films this year. You may remember her from such films as the Green Mile (the warden's wife) and the Untouchables (Ness' wife; notice a theme here).

Clarkson has done very good work in the past few years; that means a lot to the academy; and has never been nominated before.

Hunter has also done extraordinary work; has been nominated three times (twice in the same year) and has won once:

• 1987 BEST ACTRESS - Broadcast News
• 1993 BEST ACTRESS - The Piano (won)
• 1993 SUPPORTING ACTRESS - The Firm

But considering that Renee has been nominated for the past few years:

• 2001 BEST ACTRESS - Bridget Jones's Diary
• 2002 BEST ACTRESS - Chicago

And was shut out from last year's big "Chicago" win, AND she has both SAG and GG behind her, it will go to her.