In a 20 year survey (2002-1983), and 10 year survey (2002-1993) the following statistics emerge (how often the award was the same as the Academy, 20/10):
- British Film Awards (BFA) = 5/5
- Golden Globes (GG) = 17/9
- Los Angeles Film Critics (LAF) = 3/1
- National Board of Review (NBR) = 6/3
- National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) = 2/1
- New York Film Critics (NYF) = 3/1
- Producers Guild of America = 10/7
The Film Critics are nearly useless (BFA, LAF, NBR, NSFC, NYF).
The Golden Globes, an overwhelming predictor, needs to be balanced by the fact that 2 pictures are given "bests" (drama and comedy), doubling the chances. But it can't be ignored.
The Producer's Guild, who share many of the same voters of the Oscars, is a good weight, but not as good as GG.
To really analyze, we need to see the years that the picks were wrong.
The Golden Globes were wrong in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995.
- 1991 = GG chose "Bugsy," PGA was correct in choosing "Silence of the Lambs."
- 1992 = GG chose "Scent of a Woman," PGA = "Crying Game" and the Oscar went to "Unforgiven" (which was ignored by all the other majors)
- 1995 = GG chose "Sense and Sensibility" and PGA "Apollo 13." In fact, *no* other agency picked the Oscar; it went to "Braveheart" (a.k.a. The Passion of Scotland's Christ).
- 1998 = they chose "Private Ryan" over "Shakespeare"
- 2001 = they chose "Moulin Rouge" over "A Beautiful Mind"
This year, the tally is (from the Golderby site):
- BSFC, NBR - Mystic River
- CO, GG, GS, IND, IWA, NYOC, SanF, TFC, VFC - Lost in Translation
- AAFC, BFA, BFC, CFC, DFW, FFC, GG, KCFC, LVFC, NYF, OFC, PFC, PGA, PP, SAG, SFC, WDC - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- SDFC - Dirty Pretty Things
- LAF, NSFC, SEA - American Splendor
- GS - In America
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