Polling Data on Track

A key datum for predicting an incumbent's chances for re-election is the question "do you think the country is on the right track."

According to this polling data (Direction of Country), the past three months show bad numbers for Bush.

Gallup Poll. May 2-4, 2004. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?"

Date:..............Satisfied........Dissatisfied........No Opinion
5/2-4/04...............36.....................62..............................2
4/5-8/04...............41.....................57..............................2
3/8-11/04.............39.....................60..............................1

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). May 1-3, 2004. N=1,012 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?"

Date:.............Right Direction.....Wrong Track.....Mixed (vol.)....Not Sure
5/1-3/04:.............33............................50..................14......................3
3/6-8/04:.............43............................49..................4...................... 4