The Demise of Red/Blue States

The Clinton campaign has tried to explain that their steady stream of losses don't count because only blue states count. Or something.

Anyway, according to the Wiki, these states came within 5% of flipping to the other side (the chart has state, who won, by what percent):

1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
   
2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67%
   
3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79%
   
4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37%
   
5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
   
6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
   
7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59%
   
8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42%
   
9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48%
   
10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
    
11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67%

The poll numbers out now are pretty spotty, but I'd say that in any of these states, if the number of people who came out to the primaries for the Democrats is larger by the necessary vote percentage over the GOP, then these states can be won by the Democrats in 2008.

Of these 11 states, 3 haven't voted yet (OH, MI, PA). Of the remaining 8, a bunch are caucuses, which still give numbers of attendees. Now this is for the real number crunchers, but there's probably a small number of votes that will magically transform red to blue.

As you can see from the accompanying pic (click to enlarge) big chunks of the country are 'purple.' So anybody who tries to sell us on an irrevocable blue/red divide, can be tarred as a liar trying to sell you spam.

Pic from here. Backpost finished 2009-11-29. Most of the text from back then. Since I did this, some others have tried to do the same analysis. Gratifyingly, I started it first.