Oscar Predictions 2008

Yeah, I haven't written almost anything in weeks and I'm breaking silence to do the Oscars? Yup. That's tradition.

Standard disclaimer: I know even less than nothing about these movies. I've been much more interested in politics (more than usual). I'll include the nominees and put an asterisk by my pick.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Atonement (2007):
Juno (2007):
Michael Clayton (2007):
* No Country for Old Men (2007):
There Will Be Blood (2007):

To be honest, I was first going for There will be blood, because it's about oil, yet mentions blood, and that's a Hollywood shibboleth. But everyone else is predicting it's "no country." Maybe insted of Iraq politics (blood) it's US politics (Obama vs. McCain)

Best Actor
George Clooney for Michael Clayton
* Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises

Even though it's supposed to lose Best Picture to No Country, Daniel Day is supposed to be the finest performance this year. Then again, despite not being nominated for 'No Country,' Tommy Lee Jones is nominated for another forgettable film, so shouldn't they do a two-fer? Also, while he won Best Supporting for the Fugitive, he's never won Best Actor... and Day has. And the Academy may think that Day has more in him while Jones not. Eh.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age
* Julie Christie for Away from Her
Marion Cotillard for Môme, La
Laura Linney for The Savages
Ellen Page for Juno

It's supposed to be between Christie and Cotillard. I have no idea who the frog is, but people are saying it will be her. Yet why bet on a foreigner when there's a well-liked American (Christie) who also won back in 1966. I think sentiment will win out.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck - for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
* Javier Bardem - for No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - for Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - for Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - for Michael Clayton

Bardem is supposed to be the best thing about the movie I've been told is gonna be best picture. So there.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - for I'm Not There.
Ruby Dee - for American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - for Atonement
Amy Ryan - for Gone Baby Gone
* Tilda Swinton - for Michael Clayton

Maybe Blanchett because the double nom shows she's prized by her peers and this may be a weak category. Yet she's won for supporting already, and she's young. Ah, but what about Swank? Yeah, but she was in the best picture that year and Blanchett ain't. Ruby Dee's never even been nominated before... but she does have a Cable ACE! I think it's Swinton because Clayton is an actor driven movie and it just seems like a catchall category that the voters will support the movie more than the actress.

Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood
* Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman for Juno
Julian Schnabel for Scaphandre et le papillon, Le

I've heard the Schnabel film really showcased his talent as a director. But when has that ever been important? "Juno" is the quirky film that gets awarded for its script. Same with Clayton, if possible. So it comes between the two best picture favorites. But also, Anderson is young and has a lot more in him (but he's been doing great stuff, cf. Magnolia). Anyway, the Coens are gods among directors and they've only won once - for Fargo (which wasn't all that great). No Country is supposed to be the same genre but one better than Fargo.

Best Original Screenplay:
* Juno: Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl: Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton: Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco
The Savages: Tamara Jenkins

Juno. And that's despite/because the writer being a former stripper. Then again it could be Clayton for that reason too.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Atonement: Christopher Hampton
Away from Her: Sarah Polley
Scaphandre et le papillon, Le: Ronald Harwood
No Country for Old Men: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
* There Will Be Blood: Paul Thomas Anderson

Tough category. Because the standard ageing merlot-drinking Academy voter may want to spread the wealth on the awards, and give Anderson the adapted to offset losing picture/director. Because for a young guy, all three were pretty spectacular achievements. Again, they may have liked 'No Country' well enough to give the Coens the full monty. Or the directoral achivement of Scaphandre may not be enough for the biggies but will be recognized it what seems to be the category to reward the 'edgy' stuff. Orr says the Coens. I think it'll be Anderson as a consolation.

Honorable Mention: An Israeli film is one of the Best Foreign nominees (Beaufort). The director is evidently frum. Here's to hoping.